6 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

FC Orenburg vs Akron Premier League prediction & result

Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Orenburg 2-2 Akron.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Orenburg, 29% draw, 26% Akron — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Orenburg at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Orenburg4%Draw93%Akron3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Evgeniy Bolotov
20'
⚽G. Guzinaassist: D. Rybchinskiy
36'
44'
Khetag Khosonov
46'
🔁K. Arevaloout: K. Bistrovic
46'
🔁K. Maradishviliout: S. Tedic
🔁D. Pueblaout: A. Kasadzhikov
62'
62'
🔁K. Khosonovout: K. Hovhannisyan
67'
Gilson Tavares
Aleksey Tataev
69'
75'
⚽Duduassist: Benchimol
78'
⚽Benchimolassist: Y. Rocha
🔁D. Rybchinskiyout: R. Golybin
80'
🔁G. Guzinaout: Alexandre Jesus
80'
🔁E. Nazarenkoout: J. Thompson
80'
⚽Alexandre Jesusassist: J. Thompson
83'
86'
🔁Duduout: M. Bokoev
86'
🔁D. Popenkovout: R. Fernandez
90+3'
Marat Bokoev

Match stats — FC Orenburg vs Akron

40%Possession60%
14Shots10
4On target3
3Corners5

Line-ups

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 95A. KhodanovichG
  • 3D. VedernikovD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 38A. KasimovD
  • 27R. GolybinM
  • 65I. IvashchenkoM
  • 80M. PykhcheevM
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 19Alexandre JesusF
Coach: Ildar Akhmetzyanov
Akron 5-4-1
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 2Y. RochaD
  • 13V. BardybakhinD
  • 26R. EscovalD
  • 80K. KhosonovD
  • 89D. PopenkovD
  • 11DuduM
  • 15S. LoncarM
  • 22K. MaradishviliM
  • 10K. Arevalo
  • 7BenchimolF
Substitutes
  • 32I. TerekhovskyG
  • 98R. VolochayG
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernandezD
  • 47E. VedernikovD
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 67N. PlatonM
  • 8K. BistrovicM
  • 81N. BazilevskiyM
Coach: Srdjan Blagojevic

Form going into FC Orenburg vs Akron

FC Orenburg

  • D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
  • D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026

Akron

  • D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
  • L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Rodina Moskva15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11FC Orenburg8152710-38
15Akron8053918-95

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Akron

  • 6 September 2026FC Orenburg 2–2 AkronPremier League
  • 28 February 2026FC Orenburg 2–0 AkronPremier League
  • 17 August 2025Akron 1–2 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 30 November 2024Akron 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 10 August 2024FC Orenburg 2–2 AkronPremier League
  • 27 November 2021Akron 0–3 OrenburgFirst League

Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Akron

FC Orenburg

  • A. Kasadzhikov2 goals1 assists
  • R. Kul2 goals1 assists

Akron

  • Gilson Benchimol3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.