Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 Rodina Moskva.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Dinamo Makhachkala, 24% draw, 25% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Makhachkala at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva
Line-ups
- 39T. MagomedovG
- 72A. SandrachukD
- 24A. AlarconD
- 99M. AlibekovD
- 77T. SundukovD
- 6M. ApshatsevM
- 52E. SmelovM
- 47N. GlushkovM
- 16H. MrezigueM
- 88D. LesovoyM
- 11MiroF
- 1D. VolkG
- 33N. KarabashevG
- 43I. AkhmedovD
- 13S. KagermazovD
- 23M. MakhamadzhonovD
- 10M. HosseinnejadM
- 21A. DzhabrailovM
- 9R. MagomedovM
- 19K. ZinovichM
- 13S. VolkovG
- 80S. BessmertniyD
- 26A. MeshchaninovD
- 75M. NadeD
- 3L. GoglichidzeD
- 6R. FishchenkoM
- 8I. PozoM
- 9A. MaksimenkoM
- 10Y. ReynaM
- 17S. BakaevM
- 7G. OnugkhaF
- 1S. AydarovG
- 55M. KrizanD
- 88A. SokolD
- 49I. DyatlovD
- 72A. GordyushenkoM
- 38L. MusaevM
- 5A. EgorychevM
- 23K. UshatovM
- 11B. MansillaF
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
- W4-1away to Krylia Sovetov16 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva
- 6 September 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 2–0 Rodina MoskvaPremier League
- 18 May 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 2–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
- 23 October 2023Rodina Moskva 0–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaFirst League
- 15 April 2023Rodina Moskva 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaFirst League
- 25 September 2022Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and Rodina Moskva
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov4 goals
- N. Glushkov2 goals2 assists
Rodina Moskva
- A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
- Iker Pozo2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.