6 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow Premier League prediction & result

VTB Arena, Moscow
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Dynamo 2-1 Spartak Moscow.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Dynamo, 31% draw, 34% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo at 35% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo95%Draw5%Spartak Moscow0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽D. Prutsevassist: Marquinhos
⚽Y. Gladyshev
25'
⚽Arthur Gomesassist: J. Caceres
34'
Juan Cáceres
37'
45'
Nail Umyarov
63'
🔁P. Solariout: P. Polekh
Konstantin Tyukavin
72'
72'
Alexander Djiku
🔁L. Chavezout: D. Fomin
72'
75'
🔁V. Paradaout: M. Daku
🔁Arthur Gomesout: N. Marichal
77'
🔁Y. Gladyshevout: I. Sergeev
77'
83'
🔁G. Fernandesout: D. Denisov
83'
🔁D. Prutsevout: I. Sorokin
83'
🔁R. Zobninout: I. Dmitriev
86'
Christopher Wooh
90+7'
Mirlind Daku
90'
•Ivan Sorokin
🔁Bitelloout: T. Marinkin
90+4'

Match stats — Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow

43%Possession57%
16Shots6
7On target1
0Corners5

Line-ups

Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 4J. CaceresD
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 24L. ChavezM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 91Y. GladyshevF
  • 70K. TyukavinF
  • 11Arthur GomesF
Substitutes
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
  • 56L. ZaydenzalD
  • 6R. FernandezD
  • 2N. MarichalD
  • 5M. MajstorovicD
  • 74D. FominM
  • 88V. OkishorM
Coach: Sandro Schwarz
Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 83G. FernandesD
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 33V. ParadaD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 47R. ZobninM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 6S. BabicD
  • 82D. KhlusevichD
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 71A. DobroditskiyD
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
  • 27I. DmitrievM
Coach: Carlos Carcedo Juan

Form going into Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow

Dynamo

  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
  • W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Zenit16 August 2026

Spartak Moscow

  • D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
  • W2-0Zenit23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dynamo8512118+316
2Spartak Moscow9612167+919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow

  • 6 September 2026Dynamo 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 18 March 2026Spartak Moscow 1–0 DynamoCup
  • 5 March 2026Dynamo 5–2 Spartak MoscowCup
  • 6 December 2025Spartak Moscow 1–1 DynamoPremier League
  • 13 September 2025Dynamo 2–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 11 May 2025Dynamo 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.