Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Vanspor FK 3-1 Sivasspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Vanspor FK, 29% draw, 30% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vanspor FK at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. DamluG
- 13N. OularéD
- 5S. OsmanoğluD
- 2K. SevenD
- 35B. İşçilerD
- 41M. ÖzcanM
- 19H. ÇiftçiM
- 11M. ManişM
- 10O. KökçüM
- 15T. YenneM
- 17İlkan SeverF
- 77C. HanalpD
- 65M. BingölD
- 26E. AytunD
- 7I. AlhaftF
- 8M. KhanM
- 1A. UysalG
- 58Ö. YiğiterM
- 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
- 39M. ÇakmakG
- 1G. BakırbaşG
- 7M. PaluliD
- 25S. ÖzdamarD
- 34T. TuzlacikD
- 58U. ÇiftçiD
- 66Oguzhan AksoyM
- 8C. CharisisM
- 11B. KapacakM
- 23C. ÇelikM
- 27V. EthemiM
- 9R. ManajF
- 35A. VuralG
- 60K. KesginM
- 77Y. KefkirD
- 38S. KavrazlıF
- 16Arda ErdusunG
- 17C. DuoduF
- 99Yilmaz CinF
- 30E. CeesayM
- 43Eymen YurdcuM
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
Vanspor FK
1. Lig
- W1-0Sarıyer31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Boluspor23 October 2026
- L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
Sivasspor
1. Lig
- L1-2Boluspor1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Ümraniyespor24 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
What these results say
- Vanspor FK won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vanspor FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sivasspor did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Sivasspor | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor
- 14 February 2026Sivasspor 3–3 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Vanspor FK 0–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Sivasspor
Vanspor FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vanspor FK beat Sivasspor 3–1. The model had made a win for Vanspor FK its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kadir Seven 14' for Vanspor FK, Mehmet Manis 59' for Vanspor FK, Alvaro de Oliveira 81' for Vanspor FK, Rey Manaj 85' for Sivasspor. On expected goals it finished 3.02–0.38.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vanspor FK a 48.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 40.5% after a win, 49.5% after a draw, 57.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.5%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.
For Sivasspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 34.7% going in: 24.7% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vanspor FK v Sivasspor has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Vanspor FK's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Vanspor FK win41%▲ +6
- Draw29%=
- Sivasspor win30%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.