8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Boluspor vs Bodrum FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Bolu
Referee: Melih Aldemir
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Boluspor 1-2 Bodrum FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Boluspor, 28% draw, 50% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bodrum FK at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boluspor0%Draw3%Bodrum FK97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Arlind Ajetiassist: Tomas Cruz
31'
⚽Ruben Providenceassist: Tomas Cruz
37'
Ruben Providence
🔁Furkan Kaçmazout: Nurettin Korkmaz
56'
🔁Rodrigo Rivas Gonzálezout: Ege Özkayimoglu
56'
57'
Emre Kaplan
58'
Vincent Aboubakar
67'
🔁Emre Kaplanout: A. Yilmaz
67'
🔁Ruben Providenceout: Fernando
🔁Furkan Metinout: Juan Argüello
77'
🔁Bertu Ozyurekout: Muhammed Mert
77'
Canberk Ozdemir
79'
🔁M. Çaylıout: Fernando Escobar
83'
85'
🔁Ege Bilselout: Mustafa Erdilman
85'
🔁Berkay Aslanout: E. Arslan
⚽B. Göçmenassist: Fernando Escobar
88'
90+2'
🔁Tomas Cruzout: Ismail Tarim
angelo tafa
90+5'

Match stats — Boluspor vs Bodrum FK

63%Possession37%
17Shots9
7On target5
7Corners2
1.61xG0.9

Goals against chances

Boluspor1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Bodrum FK2 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Boluspor 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. TafasG
  • 2F. MetinD
  • 50B. GöçmenD
  • 3K. CuestaD
  • 54C. ÖzdemirD
  • 8T. ArtuçM
  • 17M. ÇaylıM
  • 23Z. DursunM
  • 67B. ÖzyürekM
  • 11Furkan KaçmazM
  • 9R. RivasF
Substitutes
  • 24J. ArguelloD
  • 19J. DiazM
  • 13O. ÖzdemirG
  • 10Fernando EscobarF
  • 77N. KorkmazM
  • 35E. ÖzkayımoğluF
  • 14A. KırımD
  • 21M. MertM
  • 22Arda Tuğra SaygıD
Coach: Mustapha Yatabaré
Bodrum FK 4-1-4-1
  • 1Diogo SousaG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 34A. AytemurD
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 19Berkay AslanM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 80R. ProvidenceM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 10Fernando AndradeF
  • 17E. ArslanM
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 30Elvir GashijaniF
  • 70E. KocM
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 68I. TarimD
  • 32B. TosunG
  • 25A. TürkF
Coach: Burhan Eşer

Form going into Boluspor vs Bodrum FK

Boluspor

1. Lig

  • W2-1away to Sivasspor1 November 2026
  • L0-3Vanspor FK23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
  • L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026

Bodrum FK

1. Lig

  • D1-1Ümraniyespor1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Antalyaspor25 October 2026
  • W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Boluspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Boluspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Boluspor failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bodrum FK went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Bodrum FK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bodrum FK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Boluspor131111628-224
7Bodrum FK145631813+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boluspor vs Bodrum FK

  • 16 March 2026Bodrum FK 2–0 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 2 November 2025Boluspor 3–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 16 May 2024Bodrum FK 2–0 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 17 March 2024Bodrum FK 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 28 October 2023Boluspor 2–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 7 April 2023Boluspor 1–4 Bodrum FK1. Lig

Leading scorers: Boluspor and Bodrum FK

Boluspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Bodrum FK

GoalsAssists

  • V. Aboubakar50
  • E. Bilsel41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodrum FK won 2–1 at Boluspor. The model had made a win for Bodrum FK its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Arlind Ajeti 15' for Bodrum FK, Ruben Providence 31' for Bodrum FK, B. Göçmen 88' for Boluspor. Sent off: Vincent Aboubakar (Bodrum FK) 58'. On expected goals it finished 1.61–0.90.

How the call on Boluspor v Bodrum FK has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 20% / 28% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 22% / 28% / 50%: the biggest move is Boluspor's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Boluspor win22%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Bodrum FK win50%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.