Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Vitoria, 27% draw, 38% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 2E. BrítezD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 95CaíqueM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 15WalaceM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 7MarinhoF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 1MycaelG
- 55Bruno Gonçalves BaldiniD
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 47ChiquetiM
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53DuduM
- 23SantosG
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 70RenanF
- 27J. PortillaM
- 6DerikD
- 3LéoD
Form going into Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
Serie A
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense and Vitoria have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico Paranaense has won 4 of them to Vitoria's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Vitoria on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| Vitoria | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie AVitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense - 6 Aug 2026
Copa Do BrasilVitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense - 4 Aug 2026
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Paranaense 2–0 Vitoria - 26 Apr 2026
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 3–1 Vitoria - 2 Nov 2024
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 1–2 Vitoria - 30 Jun 2024
Serie AVitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense - 17 Nov 2018
Serie AVitoria 1–2 Atletico Paranaense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Paranaense's attack rates 44% above Vitoria's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 0.98 | 1.24 |
| Vitoria | 0.68 | 1.27 |
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jamerson (own goal) 23' for Atletico Paranaense, Renato Kayzer 29' for Vitoria. Sent off: Marinho (Vitoria) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.57.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitoria a 10.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 3.7% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.7%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
For Atletico Paranaense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 64.0% going in: 78.2% after a win, 61.1% after a draw, 51.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.1%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.