Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 3-2 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 24% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
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Has the model earned this number?
Vasco da Gama at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 22A. LescanoM
- 5S. SosaM
- 11A. GómezM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 20BrennerF
- 7DavidF
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26F. AngileriD
- 49AndreM
- 7BrenoM
- 61DieguinhoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 21Matheus BiduM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 29AllanM
- 35CharlesM
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 20P. MilansD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 77J. LingardM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 37Kaio CésarF
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
Corinthians
Serie A
- D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama
Corinthians and Vasco da Gama have met 7 times in the records we hold, Corinthians has won 5 of them to Vasco da Gama's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Vasco da Gama won the last one 3–2 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 |
| Vasco da Gama | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie AVasco da Gama 3–2 Corinthians - 26 Apr 2026
Serie ACorinthians 1–0 Vasco da Gama - 21 Dec 2025
Copa Do BrasilVasco da Gama 1–2 Corinthians - 18 Dec 2025
Copa Do BrasilCorinthians 0–0 Vasco da Gama - 24 Aug 2025
Serie AVasco da Gama 2–3 Corinthians - 5 Apr 2025
Serie ACorinthians 3–0 Vasco da Gama - 24 Nov 2024
Serie ACorinthians 3–1 Vasco da Gama
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 22% above Corinthians', and Corinthians concede 6% fewer than Vasco da Gama. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 0.76 | 1.14 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.93 | 1.21 |
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama beat Corinthians 3–2. The model had made a win for Vasco da Gama its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jose Luis Rodriguez 35' for Vasco da Gama, Gustavo Henrique 50' for Corinthians, Matheus Bidu 57' for Corinthians, Marino Hinestroza 88' for Vasco da Gama, Marino Hinestroza 90' for Vasco da Gama. On expected goals it finished 1.79–0.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasco da Gama these chances to finish in the bottom four: 4.5% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.5%.
For Corinthians the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 40.0% going in: 18.2% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 49.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.6%, 9.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.