Banfield vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Banfield 1-1 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Banfield, 31% draw, 39% Lanus — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lanus at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Banfield vs Lanus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50D. RodríguezG
- 4J. AlfaroD
- 2S. DanieleD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 27I. AbrahamD
- 10L. GómezM
- 5Santiago EsquivelM
- 20T. AdoryánM
- 18Federico MedinaF
- 9A. BalboaF
- 40D. ZalazarF
- 11F. ÁlvarezM
- 21L. VillegasM
- 25G. SantilliG
- 28M. HernándezF
- 19L. CanoD
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 24S. LópezM
- 22A. MachadoF
- 37R. MalancaD
- 26N. LosadaG
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 24C. IzquierdozD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 17A. MedinaM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 16M. SepúlvedaM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 77L. BesozziM
- 20A. WlkF
- 42G. LobosF
- 15R. LoaizaM
- 35R. De JesúsD
- 23R. CarreraM
- 38B. AcostaF
- 40Tomás LópezD
- 3N. MorgantiniD
- 1F. PetroliG
- 5F. PeñaM
Form going into Banfield vs Lanus
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-1Argentinos Juniors17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tigre10 October 2026
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0away to Platense17 October 2026
- W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 15 |
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Banfield vs Lanus
Banfield and Lanus have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Banfield on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Lanus | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 1–1 Lanus - 13 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLanus 1–0 Banfield - 4 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 2–1 Lanus - 19 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLanus 1–1 Banfield - 30 Nov 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 0–1 Lanus - 26 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalLanus 1–1 Banfield - 1 Oct 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalBanfield 1–0 Lanus
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Lanus concede 38% fewer than Banfield. How the ratings are derived.
The result against the call
Banfield and Lanus drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lanus at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adrián Balboa 20' for Banfield, Carlos Izquierdoz 62' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 0.75–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Banfield a 26.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.5%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
For Lanus the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 2.1% going in: 4.6% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Banfield v Lanus has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 33% / 31% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 31% / 39%: the biggest move is Banfield's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Banfield win30%▼ −3
- Draw31%=
- Lanus win39%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.