20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Barnet vs Swindon Town League Two prediction & result

The Hive Stadium, London
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Barnet 1-3 Swindon Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Barnet, 22% draw, 20% Swindon Town — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Barnet at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barnet0%Draw1%Swindon Town99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Mitchell Clarkassist: Aaron Drinan
35'
⚽Aaron Drinanassist: Matthew Virtue-Thick
37'
⚽Aaron Drinanassist: Jack Thomson
58'
🔁Joe Snowdonout: Louis Millard
🔁Nikola Tavaresout: Tom Knowles
63'
🔁Nnamdi Ofoborhout: Jake Reeves
64'
67'
🔁Jack Thomsonout: Tom Nichols
67'
🔁Matthew Virtue-Thickout: James Debayo
🔁Oisin Gallagherout: Damola Ajayi
67'
76'
🔁Aaron Drinanout: antwoine hackford
76'
🔁S. Inwoodout: James Ball
🔁Idris Kanuout: Myles Kenlock
83'
⚽Kabongo Tshimangaassist: Charlie Lakin
90'
90+2'
Louis Millard

Match stats — Barnet vs Swindon Town

72%Possession28%
22Shots11
11On target5
14Corners0
3.42xG1.46

Goals against chances

Barnet1 from 3.42 xGless than the chances were worth
Swindon Town3 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barnet 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. CoxG
  • 5A. SeniorD
  • 4D. CollingeD
  • 6Z. WilliamsD
  • 25N. TavaresD
  • 22O. GallagherM
  • 10N. OfoborhM
  • 14B. ComleyM
  • 8C. LakinM
  • 11I. KanuM
  • 20K. TshimangaF
Substitutes
  • 17D. AjayiF
  • 30M. KenlockD
  • 36Anthony HaralambousG
  • 7T. KnowlesF
  • 23J. ReevesM
Coach: Dean Brennan
Swindon Town 3-4-2-1
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 16S. InwoodD
  • 2M. ClarkM
  • 27A. MundaM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 34B. KirkmanM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 19J. SnowdonM
  • 23A. DrinanF
Substitutes
  • 7T. NicholsM
  • 39L. MillardF
  • 15J. HungboF
  • 29A. HackfordF
  • 18J. DebayoD
  • 6J. BallM
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
Coach: Ian Holloway

Form going into Barnet vs Swindon Town

Barnet

League Two

  • W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026

Swindon Town

League Two

  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Barnet137512818+1026
16Swindon Town155461621-519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barnet vs Swindon Town

  • 17 February 2026Barnet 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 19 August 2025Swindon Town 0–2 BarnetLeague Two
  • 1 January 2018Barnet 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 2 September 2017Swindon Town 1–4 BarnetLeague Two

Leading scorers: Barnet and Swindon Town

Barnet

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tshimanga104
  • C. Lakin63

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Swindon Town won 3–1 at Barnet. The model had leaned towards a win for Barnet at 58% and given a win for Swindon Town 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Mitchell Clark 8' for Swindon Town, Aaron Drinan 35' for Swindon Town, Aaron Drinan 37' for Swindon Town, Kabongo Tshimanga 90' for Barnet. On expected goals it finished 3.42–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barnet a 73.4% chance to finish in the top three: 75.9% after a win, 71.9% after a draw, 68.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.5%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

For Swindon Town the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 10.4% going in: 5.6% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.6%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Barnet v Swindon Town has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 50% / 25% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 22% / 20%: the biggest move is Barnet's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Barnet win58%▲ +8
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Swindon Town win20%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.