20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury League Two prediction & result

The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Crawley Town 2-3 Shrewsbury.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Crawley Town, 29% draw, 33% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crawley Town at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Crawley Town4%Draw93%Shrewsbury3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Luca Hoole
⚽Ade Adeyemoassist: Stephen·Duke-Mckenna
4'
Jonathan Russell
37'
43'
Josh Davison
62'
⚽Josh Davisonassist: George Lloyd
🔁Nathan Tinsdaleout: Pemi Aderoju
71'
🔁Lewis Richardsout: Kellan Gordon
71'
🔁Kai Jenningsout: Louie Watson
79'
🔁Priestley Farquharsonout: Pele Arganese-McDermott
79'
82'
⚽George Lloyd
Dylan Morgan
84'
⚽Dylan Morganassist: Louie Watson
85'
🔁Osman kamaraout: Dion Pereira
86'
90+4'
⚽Josh Davison
90+5'
George Lloyd

Match stats — Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury

58%Possession42%
12Shots16
6On target7
4Corners2
1.42xG1.78

Goals against chances

Crawley Town2 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Shrewsbury3 from 1.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Crawley Town 3-4-2-1
  • 1V. MannoneG
  • 12L. RichardsD
  • 6P. FarquharsonD
  • 16J. RussellD
  • 22A. AdeyemoM
  • 28Nathan TinsdaleM
  • 20J. ArthursM
  • 30Kai JenningsM
  • 10S. Duke-McKennaM
  • 27Dylan MorganM
  • 17Osman KamaraF
Substitutes
  • 11P. AderojuF
  • 4Pele Arganese-McDermottD
  • 2K. GordonM
  • 13N. MichalskiG
  • 9D. OrsiF
  • 19D. PereiraM
  • 8L. WatsonM
Coach: Colin Kazım-Richards
Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
  • 1William Michael BrookG
  • 6S. StubbsD
  • 5W. BoyleD
  • 3J. RuffelsD
  • 2L. HooleM
  • 10T. SangM
  • 21will grayM
  • 11K. BerkoeM
  • 18K. M. BrownM
  • 9G. LloydF
  • 13J. DavisonF
Substitutes
  • 17Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-BoydD
  • 32Cameron GregoryG
  • 20M. GoldingM
  • 46H. AistonF
  • 30J. Thompson-McKenzieM
  • 23I. LeeD
  • 24L. SousaD
Coach: G. Cowan

Form going into Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury

Crawley Town

League Two

  • L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
  • D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026

Shrewsbury

League Two

  • W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Crawley Town122371321-89
10Shrewsbury156361923-421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury

  • 18 April 2026Crawley Town 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • 18 October 2025Shrewsbury 1–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 3 May 2025Shrewsbury 1–2 Crawley TownLeague One
  • 12 October 2024Crawley Town 3–5 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 11 March 2014Shrewsbury 1–1 Crawley TownLeague One

Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Shrewsbury

Crawley Town

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Shrewsbury

GoalsAssists

  • J. Davison51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shrewsbury won 3–2 at Crawley Town. The model had leaned towards a win for Crawley Town at 38% and given a win for Shrewsbury 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ade Adeyemo 4' for Crawley Town, Josh Davison 62' for Shrewsbury, George Lloyd 82' for Shrewsbury, Dylan Morgan 85' for Crawley Town, Josh Davison 90+4' for Shrewsbury. On expected goals it finished 1.42–1.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crawley Town a 50.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 44.3% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 56.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.7%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

For Shrewsbury the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 17.1% going in: 11.8% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Crawley Town v Shrewsbury has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Crawley Town's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Crawley Town win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Shrewsbury win33%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.