Wolves vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 1-1 Portsmouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Wolves, 28% draw, 22% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Portsmouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1José SáG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 7AndréM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 36M. ManeM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 19R. SaïdM
- 14S. NeaveF
- 26J. RuddyG
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 33G. KonanD
- 8J. JamesM
- 20T. DoyleM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 24Toti GomesD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 1N. SchmidG
- 24T. DevlinD
- 5R. PooleD
- 55M. DiaD
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 38E. AdamsM
- 37I. MohamedM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 19R. SheinM
- 10A. SegecicM
- 17T. ShadeF
- 20T. WaddinghamF
- 27O. BaileyM
- 31D. BielicaG
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenF
- 32E. KennyM
- 30B. KillipG
- 29M. MilovanovićF
- 7M. PackM
- 22Z. SwansonD
Form going into Wolves vs Portsmouth
Wolves
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Burnley16 October 2026
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
Portsmouth
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Norwich17 October 2026
- W3-2Sheffield Utd14 October 2026
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
What these results say
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Wolves and Portsmouth
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wolves and Portsmouth drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wolves at 50% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jordan James 62' for Wolves, Terry Devlin 86' for Portsmouth. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 20.3% chance to finish in the top two: 23.2% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.6%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.
For Portsmouth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.2% going in: 3.9% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.0%.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wolves v Portsmouth has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Wolves's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Wolves win50%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Portsmouth win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.