Chesterfield vs Colchester League Two prediction & result
Final score: Chesterfield 1-1 Colchester.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chesterfield, 28% draw, 27% Colchester — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chesterfield at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chesterfield vs Colchester
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23R. BootG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 15A. PondD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 20G. McEachranM
- 8R. StirkM
- 24D. MarkandayM
- 18L. MarshM
- 37J. KoromaM
- 10L. BonisF
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 26J. EcclestonD
- 27K. DyerM
- 11D. DuffyM
- 9F. BrydenF
- 4T. NaylorM
- 46T. PearceD
- 22T. Lo-TutalaG
- 30K. Vincent-YoungD
- 5J. TuckerD
- 24F. TerryD
- 3E. IandoloD
- 26J. WilliamsM
- 2R. HuntM
- 12M. SesayM
- 6P. DigbyM
- 17Jaden WilliamsM
- 9B. IhionvienF
- 11L. ChiwomeF
- 39K. ConnellyF
- 47R. HarveyM
- 44S. KuffourD
- 4Ben PerryM
- 20S. RaggettD
- 27O. ThornF
Form going into Chesterfield vs Colchester
Chesterfield
League Two
- L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026
Colchester
League Two
- D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 22 |
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chesterfield vs Colchester
- 3 March 2026Chesterfield 3–0 ColchesterLeague Two
- 4 October 2025Colchester 6–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 4 March 2025Colchester 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 22 October 2024Chesterfield 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 30 December 2017Chesterfield 0–0 ColchesterLeague Two
Leading scorers: Chesterfield and Colchester
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh61
- L. Bonis52
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chesterfield and Colchester drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Chesterfield at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dilan Markanday 29' for Chesterfield, Ben perry 82' for Colchester. On expected goals it finished 2.23–0.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chesterfield a 16.1% chance to finish in the top three: 18.2% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.1%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Chesterfield v Colchester has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Chesterfield's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Chesterfield win45%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Colchester win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.