20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town League Two prediction & result

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Cheltenham 4-2 Fleetwood Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Cheltenham, 27% draw, 36% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cheltenham at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Adam Murphy
⚽Jay Lynch (OG)
17'
Ben Stevenson
20'
⚽K. Otchere
25'
31'
Shaun Rooney
⚽Jake Evansassist: Charlie McCann
39'
45'
🔁Will daviesout: Ched Evans
45'
🔁Adam Murphyout: Crispin McLean
45'
🔁Ronan Coughlanout: Conor Haughey
50'
⚽Ched Evansassist: Crispin McLean
Jonathan Tomkinson
64'
65'
⚽Ched Evans (pen)
Stephen John Cotterill
65'
🔁K. Otchereout: Ryan Broom
74'
76'
🔁Lewis McCannout: Aaron Loupalo-Bi
⚽Freddie willcox
80'
🔁Jake Evansout: George Miller
84'
🔁Jordan Shipleyout: George Nurse
85'
🔁Andreas Weimannout: Jake Bickerstaff
88'
88'
🔁Finley Potterout: R. Cirino
89'
R. Bennett

Match stats — Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

43%Possession57%
10Shots13
5On target4
6Corners5
1.91xG2.38

Goals against chances

Cheltenham4 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fleetwood Town2 from 2.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cheltenham 4-1-4-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 33F. WillcoxD
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 9K. OtchereM
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 26J. ShipleyM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 31M. DialloG
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 20Favour OnukwuliF
Coach: S. Cotterill
Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. LynchG
  • 26S. RooneyD
  • 6R. BennettD
  • 5F. PotterD
  • 4H. NealM
  • 14L. McCannM
  • 15A. MurphyM
  • 10M. HelmM
  • 24Jake Thomas BattyM
  • 19R. CoughlanF
  • 9W. DaviesF
Substitutes
  • 17C. EvansF
  • 20A. Loupalo-BiF
  • 22J. PradicG
  • 28J. RobertsonM
  • 27C. McLeanM
  • 16Conor HaugheyD
  • 29R. CirinoD
Coach: M. Lawlor

Form going into Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

Cheltenham

League Two

  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026

Fleetwood Town

League Two

  • W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cheltenham156362326-321
11Fleetwood Town155551918+120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

  • 10 March 2026Fleetwood Town 2–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 4 October 2025Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 8 February 2025Fleetwood Town 2–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 28 September 2024Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 29 March 2024Fleetwood Town 1–2 CheltenhamLeague One

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cheltenham beat Fleetwood Town 4–2. The model had made a win for Cheltenham its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jay Lynch (own goal) 17' for Cheltenham, K. Otchere 25' for Cheltenham, Jake Evans 39' for Cheltenham, Ched Evans 50' for Fleetwood Town, Ched Evans (penalty) 65' for Fleetwood Town, Freddie willcox 80' for Cheltenham. On expected goals it finished 1.91–2.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cheltenham a 11.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 8.4% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.4%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Fleetwood Town the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 5.3% going in: 6.8% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 3.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.6%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cheltenham v Fleetwood Town has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Fleetwood Town's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Cheltenham win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Fleetwood Town win36%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.