Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale FA Cup prediction & result
Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Fleetwood Town, 23% draw, 21% Rochdale — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fleetwood Town at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Line-ups
- 1J. LynchG
- 14L. McCannD
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 6R. BennettD
- 5F. PotterD
- 24Jake Thomas BattyD
- 27C. McLeanM
- 4H. NealM
- 7A. CannonM
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 22J. PradicG
- 9W. DaviesF
- 29Raffaele CirinoD
- 15A. MurphyM
- 10M. HelmM
- 3D. AndrewD
- 28J. RobertsonM
- 26S. RooneyD
- 11Joshua ThomasF
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 2C. TaskerD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 35J. PatersonM
- 8H. GilmourM
- 19L. HannantM
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 27B. BilongoD
- 4R. EastM
- 14E. FrancisM
- 7C. HayesF
- 40I. HendersonF
- 16C. PettitM
- 12J. SpavenG
- 6E. Ebanks-LandellD
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- W3-1Bristol Rovers31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
Rochdale
League Two
- L2-4away to Port Vale31 October 2026
- L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Fleetwood Town had three goals or more.
- Rochdale did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rochdale conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Rochdale had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 20 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
- 26 September 2026Fleetwood Town 1–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 20 July 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Rochdale 3–3 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2021Fleetwood Town 1–0 RochdaleLeague One
- 3 October 2020Rochdale 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 26 December 2019Rochdale 2–3 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rochdale won 2–1 at Fleetwood Town. The model had leaned towards a win for Fleetwood Town at 56% and given a win for Rochdale 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Luke Hannant 23' for Rochdale, Ronan Coughlan (penalty) 74' for Fleetwood Town, Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko 111' for Rochdale.
How the call on Fleetwood Town v Rochdale has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 56% / 23% / 21%: the biggest move is Fleetwood Town's chance of winning, up 11 points.
- Fleetwood Town win56%▲ +11
- Draw23%▼ −4
- Rochdale win21%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.