30 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Newport County vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result

Rodney Parade, Newport
Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Newport County 4-1 Chesterfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Newport County, 28% draw, 41% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chesterfield at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newport County99%Draw1%Chesterfield0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Remeao Hutton
⚽Cameron Norman
14'
17'
George McEachran
⚽Thomas Daviesassist: Harrison Biggins
18'
21'
Paul Anthony Cook
23'
Liam Mandeville
⚽Harrison Bigginsassist: Michael Adu-Poku
29'
⚽Yahya Bamba
45+2'
45+3'
Paul Anthony Cook
58'
⚽Liam Mandevilleassist: Remeao Hutton
58'
🔁F. Brydenout: Lee Bonis
59'
🔁Dilan Markandayout: Louie Marsh
🔁Yahya Bambaout: Kieron Thomas Evans
64'
70'
🔁Josh Koromaout: Dylan Duffy
71'
🔁George McEachranout: Joel Randall
Ciaran Brennan
76'
78'
🔁Tom Pearceout: Lewis Gordon
🔁Thomas Daviesout: joe thomas
79'
🔁Michael Adu-Pokuout: Gerard Garner
79'
🔁Matthew Smithout: Cameron Evans
87'
🔁Kion Eteteout: James Crole
87'
Gerard Garner
89'
90+4'
Jack Simpson

Match stats — Newport County vs Chesterfield

28%Possession71%
21Shots12
5On target3
6Corners4
1.23xG1.41

Goals against chances

Newport County4 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chesterfield1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Newport County 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WrightG
  • 22C. NormanD
  • 5L. JenkinsD
  • 4K. CameronD
  • 3T. DaviesD
  • 8M. SmithM
  • 6C. BrennanM
  • 23M. Adu-PokuM
  • 10H. BigginsM
  • 20Y. BambaM
  • 28K. EteteF
Substitutes
  • 11J. CroleF
  • 2C. EvansM
  • 7K. EvansM
  • 19G. GarnerF
  • 34D. SassiD
  • 12Joe ThomasD
  • 25J. TurnerG
Coach: H. Mullins
Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. HemmingG
  • 33R. HuttonD
  • 15A. PondD
  • 6J. SimpsonD
  • 46T. PearceD
  • 4T. NaylorM
  • 20G. McEachranM
  • 24D. MarkandayM
  • 7L. MandevilleM
  • 37J. KoromaM
  • 9F. BrydenF
Substitutes
  • 18L. MarshF
  • 5K. McFadzeanD
  • 31J. RandallM
  • 8R. StirkM
  • 11D. DuffyM
  • 19L. GordonD
  • 10L. BonisF
Coach: P. Cook

Form going into Newport County vs Chesterfield

Newport County

League Two

  • L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
  • D1-1York17 October 2026

Chesterfield

League Two

  • W5-1Crewe24 October 2026
  • D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Newport County154742219+319
7Chesterfield156452621+522

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newport County vs Chesterfield

  • 24 January 2026Newport County 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 27 September 2025Chesterfield 4–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 8 March 2025Chesterfield 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 18 October 2024Newport County 0–3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 1 May 2018Chesterfield 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 26 August 2017Newport County 4–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two

Leading scorers: Newport County and Chesterfield

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Chesterfield

GoalsAssists

  • L. Marsh61
  • L. Bonis52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Newport County beat Chesterfield 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Chesterfield at 41% and given a win for Newport County 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cameron Norman 14' for Newport County, Thomas Davies 18' for Newport County, Harrison Biggins 29' for Newport County, Yahya Bamba 45+2' for Newport County, Liam Mandeville 58' for Chesterfield. Sent off: Paul Anthony Cook (Chesterfield) 45+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Newport County a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.2% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

For Chesterfield the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 30.5% going in: 34.0% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.