26 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Walsall vs Salford City League Two prediction & result

Bescot Stadium, Walsall
Referee: M. Coy
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Walsall 2-4 Salford City.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Walsall, 30% draw, 32% Salford City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Walsall at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Walsall0%Draw1%Salford City99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
⚽Macaulay Langstaffassist: Luke Molyneux
54'
⚽Jorge Grantassist: Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu
🔁Sven Spranglerout: Charlie Crew
58'
🔁Courtney Alphonso Clarkeout: Lewis Simper
58'
⚽Aaron Pressleyassist: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
58'
60'
🔁Kelly N'Maiout: Kallum Cesay
60'
🔁Jorge Grantout: Nathan Asiimwe
⚽Lewis Simperassist: Mason·Hancock
66'
67'
⚽Kallum Cesayassist: Macaulay Langstaff
Isaac Moore
70'
🔁Taione Richard Evumena Sodjeout: Andrew Dallas
71'
🔁Ryan Leakout: James Furlong
71'
73'
🔁Brendan Sarpeng-Wireduout: adebola oluwo
73'
🔁Abraham Odohout: Matt·Butcher
82'
⚽adebola oluwoassist: Luke Molyneux
89'
🔁Macaulay Langstaffout: Daniel Udoh

Match stats — Walsall vs Salford City

54%Possession46%
9Shots21
4On target8
6Corners6
1.79xG2.37

Goals against chances

Walsall2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
Salford City4 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Walsall 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WardG
  • 25D. SkuraD
  • 4J. ConnollyD
  • 26R. LeakD
  • 3M. HancockD
  • 15Isaac MooreM
  • 6S. SpranglerM
  • 17Courtney ClarkeM
  • 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeM
  • 11R. SmithM
  • 19A. PressleyF
Substitutes
  • 37A. AdomahF
  • 5H. BurkeD
  • 8C. CrewM
  • 9A. DallasF
  • 29J. FurlongD
  • 10L. SimperM
  • 31Tom WoosterG
Coach: Lee Grant
Salford City 3-4-2-1
  • 1W. NorrisG
  • 4W. AimsonD
  • 17D. ScarrD
  • 24T. AllenD
  • 43L. MolyneuxM
  • 16E. BondsM
  • 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
  • 14A. OdohM
  • 8J. GrantM
  • 10K. N’MaiM
  • 9M. LangstaffF
Substitutes
  • 26L. BurgeG
  • 18M. ButcherM
  • 21K. CesayM
  • 29L. GarbuttD
  • 22A. OluwoD
  • 23D. UdohF
  • 2N. AsiimweD
Coach: P. Cklamovski

Form going into Walsall vs Salford City

Walsall

League Two

  • W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026

Salford City

League Two

  • W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
  • W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Walsall135712112+922
1Salford City1510232616+1032

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Walsall vs Salford City

  • 10 March 2026Salford City 1–0 WalsallLeague Two
  • 23 August 2025Walsall 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 1 February 2025Walsall 2–2 Salford CityLeague Two
  • 21 September 2024Salford City 0–2 WalsallLeague Two
  • 1 April 2024Walsall 2–1 Salford CityLeague Two

Leading scorers: Walsall and Salford City

Walsall

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pressley90

Salford City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Langstaff51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Salford City won 4–2 at Walsall. The model had leaned towards a win for Walsall at 38% and given a win for Salford City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Macaulay Langstaff 45' for Salford City, Jorge Grant 54' for Salford City, Aaron Pressley 58' for Walsall, Lewis Simper 66' for Walsall, Kallum Cesay 67' for Salford City, adebola oluwo 82' for Salford City. On expected goals it finished 1.79–2.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Walsall a 31.4% chance to finish in the top three: 37.1% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.8%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Salford City the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 52.0% going in: 59.4% after a win, 53.5% after a draw, 46.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.4%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Walsall v Salford City has moved

First published on 12 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Salford City's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Walsall win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Salford City win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.