24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

York vs Port Vale League Two prediction & result

York Community Stadium, York
Full time2 – 0

Final score: York 2-0 Port Vale.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% York, 28% draw, 23% Port Vale — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

York at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

York99%Draw1%Port Vale0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Zak Johnsonassist: Alex Hunt
54'
⚽Alex Hunt
61'
🔁Jack Huntout: Joseph Rabole Felix
63'
🔁Frankie Maguireout: Alex Newby
63'
67'
🔁Oliver Lynchout: Max Watters
67'
🔁Jordan Gabrielout: Onel Hernández
67'
🔁Rhys Waltersout: George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
69'
🔁Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Noralesout: Maleace asamoah
🔁Alex Huntout: Hiram Boateng
71'
🔁Ollie Banksout: J. Stones
80'
84'
Kyle Dempsey

Match stats — York vs Port Vale

48%Possession52%
13Shots15
4On target5
2Corners8
1.21xG0.71

Goals against chances

York2 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Port Vale0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

York 3-4-2-1
  • 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
  • 2R. FallowfieldD
  • 5Z. JohnsonD
  • 3M. KitchingD
  • 32J. HuntM
  • 8A. HuntM
  • 28O. BanksM
  • 12H. BoyesM
  • 16A. ReadM
  • 11F. MaguireM
  • 10O. PearceF
Substitutes
  • 21H. BoatengM
  • 23J. FelixD
  • 15J. KingD
  • 30A. NewbyM
  • 9J. StonesF
  • 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
  • 24M. WilliamsD
Coach: S. Lindsey
Port Vale 3-5-2
  • 20M. MarošiG
  • 25C. HumphreysD
  • 4J. MoonD
  • 2K. JohnD
  • 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
  • 10K. DempseyM
  • 38R. WaltersM
  • 7G. ByersM
  • 3J. HeadleyM
  • 14O. LynchF
  • 24K. FigueroaF
Substitutes
  • 27M. AsamoahF
  • 33G. HallM
  • 11O. HernándezF
  • 36M. WattersF
  • 1J. SmithG
  • 22L. MontsmaD
  • 12A. McGowanD
Coach: J. Brady

Form going into York vs Port Vale

York

League Two

  • D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026

Port Vale

League Two

  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4York156542521+423
17Port Vale135351416-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: York vs Port Vale

  • 16 March 2013York 0–2 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 17 November 2012Port Vale 2–2 YorkLeague Two

Leading scorers: York and Port Vale

York

GoalsAssists

  • O. Pearce74
  • A. Newby61

Port Vale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

York beat Port Vale 2–0. The model had made a win for York its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Zak Johnson 54' for York, Alex Hunt 61' for York. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave York a 29.4% chance to finish in the top three: 31.6% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.6%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Port Vale the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 9.4% going in: 6.2% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on York v Port Vale has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. York win49%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Port Vale win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.