Rotherham vs Shrewsbury League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rotherham 3-3 Shrewsbury.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Rotherham, 27% draw, 33% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rotherham at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. EyestoneG
- 2J. RaffertyD
- 27D. IorfaD
- 5K. NgwenyaD
- 12D. HallD
- 8K. SpenceM
- 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
- 4J. AusterfieldM
- 23A. NemaneF
- 10P. MullinF
- 24J. BuyabuF
- 14Sonny AljofreeD
- 9T. BradshawF
- 1T. CannG
- 28Brandon Ashley CoverD
- 20K. LolasM
- 38Kane RichardsonM
- 33B. WilliamsD
- 1William Michael BrookG
- 6S. StubbsD
- 5W. BoyleD
- 3J. RuffelsD
- 17Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-BoydM
- 10T. SangM
- 21will grayM
- 11K. BerkoeM
- 18K. M. BrownM
- 9G. LloydF
- 13J. DavisonF
- 27J. GbodeF
- 20M. GoldingM
- 24L. SousaD
- 32Cameron GregoryG
- 23I. LeeD
- 30J. Thompson-McKenzieM
- 46H. AistonF
Form going into Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
Rotherham
League Two
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
Shrewsbury
League Two
- W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
- W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
- 8 February 2025Rotherham 1–2 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 28 September 2024Shrewsbury 1–1 RotherhamLeague One
- 19 March 2022Rotherham 0–3 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 1 March 2022Shrewsbury 0–0 RotherhamLeague One
- 26 December 2019Shrewsbury 1–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 21 September 2019Rotherham 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
Leading scorers: Rotherham and Shrewsbury
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin80
Shrewsbury
GoalsAssists
- J. Davison51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rotherham and Shrewsbury drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Rotherham at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Paul Mullin 15' for Rotherham, Paul Mullin 18' for Rotherham, Josh Davison 24' for Shrewsbury, Josh Ruffels 59' for Shrewsbury, William Boyle 67' for Shrewsbury, Tom Bradshaw 76' for Rotherham. Sent off: kian spence (Rotherham) 21', Kian McMahon-Brown (Shrewsbury) 83'. On expected goals it finished 1.48–2.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rotherham a 32.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.5% after a win, 34.1% after a draw, 38.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.1%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Shrewsbury the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.7% going in: 5.3% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.4%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rotherham v Shrewsbury has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Shrewsbury's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Rotherham win40%▼ −8
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Shrewsbury win33%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.