Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Başakşehir 2-0 Kocaelispor.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Başakşehir, 19% draw, 11% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 70% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Muhammed ŞengezerG
- 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerD
- 23Emin BayramD
- 3Jerome OpokuD
- 21Christopher OperiD
- 8Olivier KemenM
- 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
- 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
- 14Eldor ShomurodovM
- 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
- 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
- 7Yusuf SarıF
- 17Umut BozokF
- 9Davie SelkeF
- 15Hamza GürelerD
- 4Onur ErgünM
- 98Deniz DilmenG
- 33Michał KarbownikD
- 20Umut GüneşM
- 19Berkay ÖzcanM
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 99Rigoberto RivasD
- 4Tanguy ZoukrouD
- 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
- 21Massadio HaïdaraD
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızM
- 14ShowM
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 32Makana BakuF
- 75Tayfur BingölF
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 27Ege BilimM
- 17Arda OzyarF
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 89Bedirhan YıldızF
Form going into Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor
Başakşehir
- L0-2away to Inter Turku30 July 2026
- D1-1Inter Turku22 July 2026
Kocaelispor
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Başakşehir | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor
- 16 August 2026Başakşehir 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 6 April 2026Kocaelispor 0–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 31 October 2025Başakşehir 1–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 26 March 2024Başakşehir 5–2 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2021Başakşehir 3–1 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Kocaelispor
Başakşehir
- E. Shomurodov4 goals
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.