17 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Samsunspor vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Samsunspor, 20% draw, 33% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.13, 5.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Samsunspor at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Samsunspor0%Draw7%Göztepe93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Juan Santos da Silva
3'
⚽A. Matos
17'
Alex Matos
•Saikuba Jarju
25'
⚽Marius (pen)
30'
⚽E. Kilincassist: J. Mendes
43'
46'
⚽S. Armstrong
Toni Borevković
52'
52'
Sinclair Armstrong
•Marius Mouandilmadji
55'
56'
Allan
⚽Marius Mouandilmadji (pen)
58'
60'
🔁A. Antunesout: E. Bekiroglu
60'
🔁A. Matosout: Rhaldney
61'
🔁S. Armstrongout: Juan Santos
61'
🔁Andre Henriqueout: Janderson
65'
⚽E. Bekirogluassist: Janderson
🔁Mariusout: F. Kaya
70'
🔁S. Jarjuout: A. Sekongo
78'
🔁Y. Kayanout: S. Onur
78'
90+2'
🔁A. Kurtulanout: O. Bayrak
⚽C. Yukselassist: F. Kaya
90'

Match stats — Samsunspor vs Göztepe

69%Possession31%
21Shots20
3On target7
4Corners8
2.74xG1.89

Goals against chances

Samsunspor3 from 2.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Göztepe3 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Samsunspor 4-3-3
  • 1O. KocukG
  • 2J. MendesD
  • 24T. BorevkovicD
  • 6A. B. DiabbateD
  • 17L. TomassonD
  • 29A. MakoumbouM
  • 5C. YukselM
  • 20Y. KayanM
  • 30S. JarjuF
  • 9MariusF
  • 11E. KilincF
Substitutes
  • 25B. BayazitG
  • 13E. UstunG
  • 34G. GuarinoD
  • 72M. TanD
  • 23E. Albak
  • 42A. SekongoM
  • 8S. OnurM
  • 70T. BulbulM
  • 14F. KayaF
Coach: Thorsten Fink
Göztepe 3-4-1-2
  • 25L. GugeshashviliG
  • 4T. AltikardesD
  • 3Allan GodoiD
  • 13E. YildirimD
  • 2A. KurtulanM
  • 6A. MatosM
  • 20N. MiroshiM
  • 15A. CherniM
  • 8A. AntunesF
  • 7Andre HenriqueF
  • 22S. ArmstrongF
Substitutes
  • 1A. OzcimenG
  • 33S. OzturkG
  • 16O. BayrakD
  • 10E. BekirogluM
  • 5RhaldneyM
  • 11Guilherme LuizF
  • 9Juan SantosF
  • 17G. BayrakdarF
  • 39JandersonF
Coach: Stanimir Stoilov

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Samsunspor5113611-54
18Göztepe5023913-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Göztepe

  • 17 August 2026Samsunspor 3–3 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • 16 May 2026Samsunspor 3–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • 21 December 2025Göztepe 2–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 3 March 2025Göztepe 2–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 28 September 2024Samsunspor 4–3 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • 7 April 2023Göztepe 1–0 Samsunspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Göztepe

Samsunspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Göztepe

  • Juan4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.