Amed vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Amed, 25% draw, 34% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 7Ermal KrasniqiM
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 11Yira Collins SorM
- 91Dia SabaF
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 18Gökhan GülM
- 10Samuel BalletF
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 97Berk KızıldemirM
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 11Fernando AndradeM
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 99Mustafa FettahogluM
- 10Eren TozluF
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 5Murat Cem AkpinarM
- 90Nariman AkhundzadeF
- 7İlkan SeverF
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 22Mustafa YumluD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 15 | Erzurumspor FK | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amed vs Erzurumspor FK
- 16 August 2026Amed 3–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 18 January 2026Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 18 August 2025Amed 2–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 16 March 2025Amed 1–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 November 2024Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 15 January 2017Amed 1–1 Erzurumspor FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Amed and Erzurumspor FK
Amed
- G. Orban6 goals1 assists
Erzurumspor FK
- E. Tozlu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.