Levante vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Levante 0-2 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Levante, 25% draw, 49% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 2A. MandiD
- 3Ifeanyi NdukweD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 6RequeM
- 7BruguiM
- 9Iván RomeroM
- 24T. FernándezM
- 21Etta EyongF
- 27Paco CortésF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 4DelaD
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 10P. RatkovF
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 33M. SantosD
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 3O. VargasM
- 9A. SørlothF
- 21C. RomeroD
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 1J. MussoG
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 24Robin Le NormandD
Form going into Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Levante
La Liga
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad25 October 2026
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
Atletico Madrid
La Liga
- W1-0Deportivo La Coruna24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Espanyol17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Levante
Atletico Madrid and Levante have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico Madrid has won 3 of them to Levante's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Atletico Madrid won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
| Levante | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
La LigaLevante 0–2 Atletico Madrid - 31 Jan 2026
La LigaLevante 0–0 Atletico Madrid - 8 Nov 2025
La LigaAtletico Madrid 3–1 Levante - 18 Jan 2023
Copa del ReyLevante 0–2 Atletico Madrid - 16 Feb 2022
La LigaAtletico Madrid 0–1 Levante - 28 Oct 2021
La LigaLevante 2–2 Atletico Madrid - 20 Feb 2021
La LigaAtletico Madrid 0–2 Levante
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Madrid's attack rates 38% above Levante's, and Atletico Madrid concede 36% fewer than Levante. That gives Atletico Madrid the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| Levante | 0.98 | 1.09 |
Leading scorers: Levante and Atletico Madrid
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid won 2–0 at Levante. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo 36' for Atletico Madrid, Giuliano Simeone Baldini 62' for Atletico Madrid. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Levante a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.7%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico Madrid the question was the chance to win the league, 9.2% going in: 11.2% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 5.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.2%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.