Le Puy Foot vs Caen Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Le Puy Foot 2-2 Caen.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Le Puy Foot, 26% draw, 29% Caen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Le Puy Foot at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1M. Carvalho
- 7E. Kouassi
- 2Vinicius Gomes
- 19T. Ghalem
- 3E. Seidou
- 13A. Fatahine
- 18A. Gauthier
- 10R. Xhemo
- 21L. Baret
- 9M. Faty
- 17P. Nsingi
- 30T. Ramousse
- 5M. Dembele
- 6W. Zahibo
- 27I. Ducourtioux
- 11M. Emmanuel
- 14M. Mazaudier
- 16Y. Clementia
- 12D. Appiah
- 4S. Mbaka
- 23L. Carole
- 32I. Aissaoui
- 28H. Saivet
- 18F. Bomo
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20K. Portut
- 22M. Hafid
- 40R. Tutu
- 5Y. Diaby
- 24L. Milliner
- 6J. Kimboma
- 10I. Botella
- 11A. Gnanduillet
- 35M. Daffot
Form going into Le Puy Foot vs Caen
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3
- W1-0away to Aubagne17 October 2026
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
Caen
Ligue 3
- W2-1La Roche VF15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Fleury 913 October 2026
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 3 | Caen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Puy Foot vs Caen
- 13 March 2026Le Puy Foot 1–0 CaenLigue 3
- 3 October 2025Caen 2–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
The result against the call
Le Puy Foot and Caen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Puy Foot at 45% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. El Khoumisti 15' for Caen, P. Nsingi 30' for Le Puy Foot, A. Gauthier 36' for Le Puy Foot, F. El Khoumisti 64' for Caen.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Puy Foot a 46.5% chance to finish in the top six: 52.7% after a win, 43.2% after a draw, 37.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.2%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
For Caen the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 53.4% going in: 62.1% after a win, 52.9% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 52.9%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.