Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Rayo Vallecano, 31% draw, 35% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 9AlemãoF
- 36G. BouareM
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 11R. NtekaM
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 13I. RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 28Andrés AntañónM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 1A. BayındırG
- 30H. BurcioM
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 24C. DriouechF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 4A. FayeD
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- L0-3Elche24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- D0-0Real Betis25 October 2026
- W2-1Alaves18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano have met 7 times in the records we hold, Rayo Vallecano has won 3 of them to Celta Vigo's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Rayo Vallecano won the last one 3–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
La LigaRayo Vallecano 3–0 Celta Vigo - 18 Jan 2026
La LigaCelta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano - 21 Sep 2025
La LigaRayo Vallecano 1–1 Celta Vigo - 18 May 2025
La LigaCelta Vigo 1–2 Rayo Vallecano - 10 Jan 2025
La LigaRayo Vallecano 2–1 Celta Vigo - 31 Mar 2024
La LigaCelta Vigo 0–0 Rayo Vallecano - 11 Dec 2023
La LigaRayo Vallecano 0–0 Celta Vigo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Rayo Vallecano's attack rates 18% above Celta Vigo's, and Celta Vigo concede 19% fewer than Rayo Vallecano. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.91 | 1.02 |
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 35% and given a win for Rayo Vallecano 34%. The goals: Jorge De Frutos 36' for Rayo Vallecano, Jorge De Frutos 55' for Rayo Vallecano, Unai López 73' for Rayo Vallecano. On expected goals it finished 1.13–1.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rayo Vallecano a 23.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.4% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 27.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.4%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
For Celta Vigo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.8% going in: 3.2% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.5%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Rayo Vallecano's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Rayo Vallecano win34%▼ −4
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Celta Vigo win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.