Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zamalek SC 2-1 El Mokawloon.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Zamalek SC, 34% draw, 25% El Mokawloon — fair odds of 2.44, 2.94 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Zamalek SC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37Al Mahdi SolimanG
- 4Omar GaberD
- 24Mohamed IsmailD
- 28Mahmoud Hamdi El WenshD
- 13Ahmed Abou El FotouhD
- 17Mohamed ShehataM
- 11Ahmed EshoM
- 98Oday DabbaghM
- 19Abdalla El SaidM
- 31Ahmed SherifM
- 81Chico BanzaF
- 20Mostafa El ZenaryD
- 16Mohamed SobhiG
- 7Hossam AshrafF
- 58M. FaragD
- 55M. HamadM
- 21A. JafeliF
- 97A. KhodaryD
- 12Ahmed RabieM
- 44Youssef WaelM
- 18Mohamed FawziG
- 27Khaled Abdel FattahD
- 4Hassan HusseinD
- 5Mohamed AmmarD
- 23J. OchayaD
- 6D. DokouM
- 12Omar El WahshM
- 22Mido GaberM
- 74Mohamed AbdelnasserM
- 25Joackiam OjeraM
- 92Idrissa ThiamF
- 1Mahmoud Abou El SaoudG
- 99Shady HusseinF
- 24Nader HeshamD
- 3Mohamed HamedD
- 14Mostafa GamalM
- 17M. RifaatF
- 7Anas BaniowdaF
- 28Ibrahim AdelM
- 19A. Aouled BehiM
Form going into Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
Zamalek SC
Premier League
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol20 October 2026
- L0-2Al Ahly11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
El Mokawloon
Premier League
- W3-0away to Enppi19 October 2026
- D1-1Masr12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Zamalek SC had two goals or fewer.
- Zamalek SC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Zamalek SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- El Mokawloon went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- El Mokawloon scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for El Mokawloon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
- 16 August 2025Zamalek SC 0–0 El MokawloonPremier League
- 29 July 2024El Mokawloon 2–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 25 September 2023Zamalek SC 1–1 El MokawloonPremier League
- 4 July 2023Zamalek SC 6–1 El MokawloonCup
- 17 April 2023Zamalek SC 2–2 El MokawloonPremier League
- 25 December 2022El Mokawloon 0–0 Zamalek SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Sherif30
- Chico Banza21
El Mokawloon
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zamalek SC beat El Mokawloon 2–1. The model had made a win for Zamalek SC its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mohamed Ahmad Hamad Shehata 46' for Zamalek SC, Omar Gaber (own goal) 57' for El Mokawloon, Chico Banza 88' for Zamalek SC. On expected goals it finished 1.09–2.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zamalek SC a 89.9% chance to finish in the top six: 95.1% after a win, 89.3% after a draw, 83.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.1%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
For El Mokawloon the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 40.5% going in: 56.2% after a win, 37.6% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.8%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Zamalek SC v El Mokawloon has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 45% / 32% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 34% / 25%: the biggest move is Zamalek SC's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Zamalek SC win41%▼ −4
- Draw34%▲ +2
- El Mokawloon win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.