Kyoto Sanga vs Newcastle Jets AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Kyoto Sanga 5-2 Newcastle Jets.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Kyoto Sanga, 24% draw, 25% Newcastle Jets — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kyoto Sanga at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kyoto Sanga vs Newcastle Jets
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 90HallsG
- 5H. TawiahD
- 43WevertonD
- 62T. ShichiD
- 25Yoon Sung-JunM
- 10S. FukuokaM
- 6João PedroM
- 44K. SatoM
- 38EvertonM
- 11Marco TúlioM
- 9Rafael EliasF
- 77H. AraiM
- 40Y. IshidaD
- 24H. MorookaM
- 93S. NagasawaF
- 15K. NagataD
- 48R. NakanoM
- 7M. OkugawaM
- 1G. OtaG
- 29Ko SakaiF
- 1J. DelianovG
- 22J. BertolissioD
- 5J. ShaughnessyD
- 39T. AquilinaD
- 23D. WilmeringD
- 14M. BurgessM
- 11J. LolleyM
- 6Z. SchreiberM
- 27Julian RecchiaM
- 43X. BertoncelloM
- 8P. WoodF
- 9N. VergosF
- 52Nicholas BadolatoM
- 40J. BaylisG
- 46E. DebonoF
- 28W. DobsonM
- 54J. GoodwinF
- 2A. GrantD
- 64Jesse HillF
- 24A. NunesM
Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Newcastle Jets
Kyoto Sanga
AFC Champions League Elite
- W1-0Ratchaburi13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Newcastle Jets
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kyoto Sanga and Newcastle Jets
Kyoto Sanga
GoalsAssists
- Alex Negueba21
Newcastle Jets
GoalsAssists
- P. Wood40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kyoto Sanga beat Newcastle Jets 5–2. The model had made a win for Kyoto Sanga its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrick Wood (penalty) 13' for Newcastle Jets, Patrick Wood (penalty) 45+2' for Newcastle Jets, Hisashi Appiah Tawiah 45+6' for Kyoto Sanga, Alex Souza 56' for Kyoto Sanga, Marco Túlio 60' for Kyoto Sanga, Rafael Papagaio 67' for Kyoto Sanga, Alex Souza 84' for Kyoto Sanga. On expected goals it finished 2.94–1.80.