18 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island Super League prediction & result

Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing
Referee: Lei Zhang, China
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Beijing Guoan, 24% draw, 18% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beijing Guoan at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beijing Guoan97%Draw3%Qingdao Youth Island0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁F. Abreuout: Zhang Xizhe
21'
48'
Meng Jingchao
62'
🔁Meng Jingchaoout: Yang Zhanpeng
🔁Wang Gangout: Yue Tze-Nam
67'
🔁Bai Yangout: Li Lei
67'
⚽Zhang Yuningassist: Serginho
78'
🔁Lin Liangmingout: Deng Jiefu
82'
Cao Yongjing
90+3'

Match stats — Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island

74%Possession26%
15Shots7
4On target1
5Corners5

Line-ups

Beijing Guoan 4-4-2
  • 34Hou SenG
  • 27Gang WangD
  • 25Uroš SpajićD
  • 5Guilherme RamosD
  • 26Yang BaiD
  • 37Yongjing CaoM
  • 8Aboubacar KonteM
  • 7Sai Erjini'aoM
  • 11Lin LiangmingM
  • 29Fabio AbreuF
  • 9Zhang YuningF
Substitutes
  • 10Zhang XizheM
  • 21Tze-Nam YueD
  • 4Li LeiD
  • 47Deng JiefuD
  • 22Han JiaqiG
  • 30Shuangjie FanD
  • 24Abdugheni AbduhamitD
  • 43Xia XiaoyuM
  • 41Cheng XiM
Qingdao Youth Island 4-1-4-1
  • 26Shibo LiuG
  • 19Yu DongD
  • 5Samir MemisevicD
  • 2Bruno VianaD
  • 22Gengrui WangD
  • 28Chengdong ZhangM
  • 10Nelson LuzM
  • 8Xiuwei ZhangM
  • 21Jingchao MengM
  • 11DavidsonM
  • 9AzizF
Substitutes
  • 30Yang ZhanpengM
  • 37Dong HangG
  • 33Zhicheng LiuD
  • 4Elnizar LohmanD
  • 20Longhai HeM
  • 15Peng WangD
  • 32Haifeng DingD
  • 3Honglüe ZhaoD
  • 35Song NanM

Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island

Beijing Guoan

Super League

  • W3-0away to Qingdao Jonoon9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026

Qingdao Youth Island

Super League

  • L0-4Dalian Zhixing11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Beijing Guoan30151055836+2250
8Qingdao Youth Island3081573242-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island

  • 19 May 2026Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 16 August 2025Qingdao Youth Island 1–3 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 22 July 2025Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Beijing GuoanFA Cup
  • 17 June 2025Beijing Guoan 1–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
  • 11 August 2024Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 21 April 2024Beijing Guoan 4–1 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League

Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island

Beijing Guoan

GoalsAssists

  • Zhang Yuning157
  • Fábio Abreu116

Qingdao Youth Island

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Youth Island 1–0. The model had made a win for Beijing Guoan its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Zhang Yuning 78' for Beijing Guoan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beijing Guoan a 93.8% chance to finish in the top four: 99.5% after a win, 92.4% after a draw, 75.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.5%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

For Qingdao Youth Island the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.8% going in: 35.1% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Beijing Guoan v Qingdao Youth Island has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Beijing Guoan's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Beijing Guoan win58%▲ +11
  2. Draw24%▼ −4
  3. Qingdao Youth Island win18%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.