17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Super League prediction & result

Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Jinan
Referee: Meng Xiangkun, China
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Shandong Luneng, 22% draw, 29% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 2.04, 4.55 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shandong Luneng at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shandong Luneng99%Draw1%Hangzhou Greentown0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Xu Junchi
⚽Guilherme Madrugaassist: Cryzan
20'
23'
🔁M. Tolicout: Tong Lei
•Y. Li
33'
Mijit Mewlan
37'
⚽Xie Wennengassist: V. Qazaishvili
40'
⚽V. Qazaishviliassist: Cryzan
45+5'
46'
🔁Wu Weiout: Cheng Jin
53'
•Y. Wang
🔁Y. Liout: Memet Imran
61'
🔁Mijit Mewlanout: Chen Pu
61'
Huang Zhengyu
64'
76'
🔁Sun Guowenout: Wang Shiqin
🔁Xie Wennengout: Shi Songchen
78'
🔁Huang Zhengyuout: Chen Zeshi
78'
⚽V. Qazaishviliassist: Chen Pu
79'
81'
Liu Haofan
⚽Cryzan (pen)assist: Cryzan
83'
88'
Cheng Jin
🔁Peng Xiaoout: Yin Jiaxi
89'
⚽Cryzan
90+2'

Match stats — Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown

50%Possession50%
21Shots16
10On target6
2Corners6

Line-ups

Shandong Luneng 3-4-3
  • 14Dalei WangG
  • 8Guilherme MadrugaD
  • 3Peng XiaoD
  • 23Pedro ÁlvaroD
  • 28Maiwulang MijitiM
  • 22Yuanyi LiM
  • 35Zhengyu HuangM
  • 11Yang LiuM
  • 7Wenneng XieF
  • 9CryzanF
  • 10Valeri QazaishviliF
Substitutes
  • 38Memet ImranM
  • 29Chen PuF
  • 15Songchen ShiD
  • 37Zeshi ChenM
  • 34Jiaxi YinM
  • 36Qiwei LiuG
  • 1Yu JinyongG
  • 32Qihang SunG
  • 5Zheng ZhengD
Hangzhou Greentown 4-2-3-1
  • 33Bo ZhaoG
  • 25Xu JunchiD
  • 5Liu HaofanD
  • 36Lucas PossignoloD
  • 26Guowen SunD
  • 14Wei WuM
  • 4Jin-seob ParkM
  • 7Qianglong TaoM
  • 10Marko TolićM
  • 28Alexandru MitrițăM
  • 11Wang YudongF
Substitutes
  • 16Tong LeiD
  • 22Cheng JinM
  • 17Shiqin WangD
  • 1Chunyu DongG
  • 38Zhang AihuiD
  • 3Wang ChangD
  • 8Alexander N'DoumbouM
  • 6Bao ShengxinM
  • 29Jiaqi ZhangM

Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown

Shandong Luneng

Super League

  • D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long11 October 2026
  • D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026

Hangzhou Greentown

Super League

  • L2-4SHANGHAI SIPG9 October 2026
  • W4-1Wuhan Three Towns18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Shandong Luneng3016596049+1147
9Hangzhou Greentown30126125554+137

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown

  • 20 May 2026Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
  • 18 October 2025Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Shandong LunengSuper League
  • 10 May 2025Shandong Luneng 4–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
  • 27 October 2024Hangzhou Greentown 3–3 Shandong LunengSuper League
  • 25 May 2024Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
  • 22 July 2023Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Shandong LunengSuper League

Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown

Shandong Luneng

GoalsAssists

  • Cryzan209
  • V. Qazaishvili1010

Hangzhou Greentown

GoalsAssists

  • A. Mitriță1315

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 5–0. The model had made a win for Shandong Luneng its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Guilherme Madruga 20' for Shandong Luneng, Xie Wenneng 40' for Shandong Luneng, V. Qazaishvili 45+5' for Shandong Luneng, V. Qazaishvili 79' for Shandong Luneng, Cryzan 90+2' for Shandong Luneng. Sent off: Xu Junchi (Hangzhou Greentown) 17', Cheng Jin (Hangzhou Greentown) 88'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shandong Luneng a 38.4% chance to finish in the top four: 55.3% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.3%, 16.9 points higher than before the match.

For Hangzhou Greentown the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 2.1% going in: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 3.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.4%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 22% / 29%: the biggest move is Shandong Luneng's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Shandong Luneng win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Hangzhou Greentown win29%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.