18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Mogilev
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 Bate Borisov.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 29% draw, 31% Bate Borisov — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dnepr Mogilev97%Draw3%Bate Borisov0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nikita krasnovassist: Nikita Tereshchuk
12'
39'
Vladislav Varaksa
49'
⚽Vladislav Varaksaassist: erick puerto
57'
pavel dubovskiy
⚽Kirill Zabelinassist: Nikita Tereshchuk
66'
🔁Nikita Tereshchukout: Egor Karpitskiy
66'
68'
🔁Egor Rusakovout: vladislav yatskevich
Maksim Kasarab
71'
vadim harutyunyan
74'
🔁Nikita krasnovout: Aleksey Dunaev
75'
79'
🔁Ivan Mikhniukout: ales sakhonchik
79'
🔁Nikolay Bochkoout: Marat Titov
🔁Dmitriy·Lisakovichout: Andrey Denisyuk
86'
🔁Kirill Kirilenkoout: R. Pilecki
86'

Match stats — FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov

43%Possession57%
6Shots11
2On target2
5Corners9

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev 5-3-2
  • 8S. RusakG
  • 33A. SinenkoD
  • 5A. VarganovD
  • 15M. KasarabD
  • 17A. PotapenkoD
  • 10K. ZabelinD
  • 88K. KirilenkoM
  • 89V. HarutyunyanM
  • 11D. LisakovichM
  • 66N. TereshchukF
  • 55N. KrasnovF
Substitutes
  • 77Dmitri GushchenkoG
  • 23A. DunaevD
  • 29A. DenisyukM
  • 74David CherkasovD
  • 3Nenad PerovićD
  • 21E. KarpitskiyF
  • 27R. PiletskiyM
  • 37K. TsepenkovM
Coach: I. Kriushenko
Bate Borisov 3-4-3
  • 16D. SokolG
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 6H. MoussakhanianD
  • 28I. MikhnyukD
  • 23N. BochkoM
  • 52E. KressM
  • 10E. RusakovM
  • 25N. NeskoromnyM
  • 17Y. KovalevF
  • 37E. PuertoF
  • 26V. VaraksaF
Substitutes
  • 30T. GagloevM
  • 55K. KaplenkoM
  • 47A. SakhonchikM
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 21M. TitovM
  • 24V. YatskevichF
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichM
  • 18P. KolosovskiyM
  • 5M. SakutaD
Coach: V. Rogozhkin

Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Premier League

  • L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026

Bate Borisov

Premier League

  • L0-2Neman14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FC Dnepr Mogilev28411132743-1623
14Bate Borisov2859142034-1424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov

  • 31 May 2026Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 1 September 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 8 June 2024Bate Borisov 2–4 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2024Bate Borisov 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 25 February 2023Bate Borisov 1–3 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 August 2022Bate Borisov 2–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League

The result against the call

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat Bate Borisov 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Dnepr Mogilev its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nikita krasnov 12' for FC Dnepr Mogilev, Vladislav Varaksa 49' for Bate Borisov, Kirill Zabelin 66' for FC Dnepr Mogilev.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dnepr Mogilev a 90.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 84.0% after a win, 94.6% after a draw, 98.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.0%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

For Bate Borisov the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.8% going in: 15.4% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 44.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.4%, 12.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is FC Dnepr Mogilev's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Dnepr Mogilev win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Bate Borisov win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.