18 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua Super League prediction & result

Wuhan Sports Centre, Wuhan
Referee: Muhammad Taqi, Singapore
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Wuhan Three Towns, 23% draw, 43% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shanghai Shenhua at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wuhan Three Towns0%Draw6%Shanghai Shenhua94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽L. Asue
43'
L. Asue
45+1'
Zhu Chenjie
🔁Wang Jinxianout: A. Leautey
46'
Li Shenyuan
60'
⚽J. Cadizassist: A. Leautey
62'
67'
⚽Rafael Ratao (pen)
67'
🔁Xie Pengfeiout: Xu Haoyang
67'
🔁Yang Zexiangout: Chan Shinichi
🔁Li Shenyuanout: J. Xiong
70'
76'
🔁Gao Tianyiout: Wang Haijian
🔁Gustavo Sauerout: Liu Binbin
76'
86'
🔁J. Teixeiraout: Jiang Shenglong
🔁Zhang Xiaobinout: Zheng Haoqian
86'
87'
🔁L. Asueout: Han Jiawen
Xu Haofeng
88'
90+1'
⚽Han Jiawenassist: Wu Xi

Match stats — Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua

47%Possession53%
12Shots15
8On target5
5Corners3

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns 4-4-2
  • 31Guo JiayuG
  • 5Shenyuan LiD
  • 2Guan HeD
  • 11Ang LiD
  • 4Xu HaofengD
  • 8Jinxian WangM
  • 18Xiaobing ZhangM
  • 20Adriano FirminoM
  • 10Kilian BevisM
  • 7Gustavo SauerF
  • 29Jhonder CádizF
Substitutes
  • 50Antoine LeauteyF
  • 21Jizheng XiongM
  • 33Binbin LiuM
  • 9Zheng HaoqianF
  • 22Jingqi FangG
  • 15Zhechao ChenD
  • 28Denny Wang YiD
  • 19Yiming LiuD
  • 13Kaimu ZhengM
Shanghai Shenhua 4-2-3-1
  • 1Qinghao XueG
  • 13Wilson ManafáD
  • 3Jin ShunkaiD
  • 5Chenjie ZhuD
  • 16Zexiang YangD
  • 17Tianyi GaoM
  • 15Wu XiM
  • 19Luís AsuéM
  • 10João Carlos TeixeiraM
  • 30Xie PengfeiM
  • 9Rafael RatãoF
Substitutes
  • 27Shinichi ChanD
  • 21Haoyang XuM
  • 33Haijian WangM
  • 4Shenglong JiangD
  • 45Jiawen HanM
  • 50Zhicheng JiangG
  • 24Zhen MaG
  • 2Shilong WangD
  • 26Shuai YangD

Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua

Wuhan Three Towns

Super League

  • D1-1away to Shenyang Urban11 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026

Shanghai Shenhua

Super League

  • W7-1Yunnan Yukun10 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wuhan Three Towns30512134557-1222
7Shanghai Shenhua30155106750+1740

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua

  • 20 May 2026Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 31 August 2025Wuhan Three Towns 1–0 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
  • 19 April 2025Shanghai Shenhua 2–0 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 29 July 2024Wuhan Three Towns 0–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
  • 9 April 2024Shanghai Shenhua 4–1 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
  • 13 August 2023Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League

Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua

Wuhan Three Towns

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cádiz226

Shanghai Shenhua

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Ratão191

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shanghai Shenhua won 3–1 at Wuhan Three Towns. The model had made a win for Shanghai Shenhua its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: L. Asue 2' for Shanghai Shenhua, J. Cadiz 62' for Wuhan Three Towns, Rafael Ratao (penalty) 67' for Shanghai Shenhua, Han Jiawen 90+1' for Shanghai Shenhua.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wuhan Three Towns a 96.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 92.2% after a win, 98.1% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Shanghai Shenhua the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.3% going in: 6.4% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wuhan Three Towns v Shanghai Shenhua has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 25% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 23% / 43%: the biggest move is Shanghai Shenhua's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Wuhan Three Towns win34%▼ −3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Shanghai Shenhua win43%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.