Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Super League prediction & result
Final score: Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Yunnan Yukun, 24% draw, 27% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Yunnan Yukun at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Line-ups
- 23Zhifeng WangG
- 3Wang-Kit TsuiD
- 33Andrei BurcăD
- 2Ruibao HuD
- 21Zihao YangD
- 8Xin XuM
- 39Bunyamin AbdusalamM
- 10Alexandru IonițăM
- 34Caio ViníciusM
- 11Oscar Taty MarituM
- 9CléberF
- 26Chenliang ZhangD
- 30John Hou SæterM
- 27Zilong HanM
- 24Jianxian YuG
- 1Yaxiong BaoG
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
- 5Ke ShiD
- 22Liuyu DuanM
- 17Sun XuelongM
- 1Haoyang YaoG
- 37Wei SuoweiD
- 4Ruijie YueD
- 33LucãoD
- 26Xiaoqiang HeD
- 9Alexandru CîmpanuM
- 10Ibrahim AmadouM
- 16Zhixiong ZhangM
- 18Weipeng LiangM
- 11Nany DimataF
- 7Yuwang XiangF
- 24Mingshi LiuD
- 27Yongqiang WuM
- 3Zhang YingkaiD
- 19Du YuezhengF
- 38Qilong RuanD
- 31Wu ZitongG
- 25Yeerzhati YeerjietiG
- 6Pengxiang JinD
- 21Jiale LiuM
Form going into Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun
Super League
- L1-7away to Shanghai Shenhua10 October 2026
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League
- D1-1Shandong Luneng11 October 2026
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 43 |
| 10 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 2 September 2026Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang LongFA Cup
- 20 May 2026Chongqing Tongliang Long 0–0 Yunnan YukunSuper League
- 15 September 2024Chongqing Tongliang Long 3–2 Yunnan YukunLeague One
- 27 April 2024Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague One
- 2 July 2023Yunnan Yukun 0–0 Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague Two
- 6 May 2023Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Yunnan YukunLeague Two
Leading scorers: Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu239
- Cléber145
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Yunnan Yukun at 49% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Cleber 34' for Yunnan Yukun, G. Cimpanu (penalty) 82' for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Yunnan Yukun a 39.7% chance to finish in the top four: 54.5% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.9%, 14.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Yunnan Yukun win49%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Chongqing Tongliang Long win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.