27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Modena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza
Referee: Daniele Perenzoni
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Vicenza Virtus 1-2 Modena.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Vicenza Virtus, 27% draw, 40% Modena — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bryant Nieling (OG)
13'
17'
⚽Andrea Belottiassist: Giuseppe Caso
Nicolò Brighenti
19'
36'
🔁Francesco Zampanoout: Antonio Imputato
55'
🔁Giuseppe Casoout: Gastón Brugman
Alessandro Bellemo
62'
64'
Francesco Folino
Mattia Valoti
69'
🔁Nicola Rautiout: Claudio Morra
71'
🔁Giulio Pellizzariout: Loris Zonta
71'
🔁Mattia Valotiout: Filippo Alessio
76'
Tommaso Corazza
84'
🔁Tommaso Corazzaout: Thomas Sandon
84'
88'
🔁Andrea Belottiout: Daniele Montevago
88'
🔁Giacomo Olzerout: Kleis Bozhanaj
89'
⚽Giuseppe Ambrosino

Match stats — Vicenza Virtus vs Modena

46%Possession54%
6Shots10
2On target3
5Corners4
0.34xG1.15

Goals against chances

Vicenza Virtus1 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Modena2 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 66A. PapettiD
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 5R. MarchizzaD
  • 28L. CaferriM
  • 26G. PellizzariM
  • 8A. BellemoM
  • 10M. ValotiM
  • 21T. CorazzaM
  • 7N. RautiF
  • 33S. MerkajF
Substitutes
  • 68F. BagheriaG
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 32F. CostaD
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 9C. MorraF
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 77A. RadaM
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 44R. TalaricoM
Coach: F. Gallo
Modena 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 72G. OlzerM
  • 70G. AmbrosinoM
  • 10G. CasoM
  • 11A. BelottiF
Substitutes
  • 28D. AdorniD
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 25A. LaidaniG
  • 9D. MontevagoF
  • 32W. AcquahM
  • 29L. BacchinF
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
Coach: D. Galloppa

Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Modena

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

Modena

Serie B

  • W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109
2Modena117222010+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Modena

  • 22 January 2020Vicenza Virtus 1–0 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 25 August 2019Modena 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Modena

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena won 2–1 at Vicenza Virtus. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Modena at 40%. The goals: Bryant Nieling (own goal) 13' for Vicenza Virtus, Andrea Belotti 17' for Modena, Giuseppe Ambrosino 89' for Modena. On expected goals it finished 0.34–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vicenza Virtus a 11.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.0% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 14.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.5%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Modena the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 17.5% going in: 20.9% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.9%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vicenza Virtus v Modena has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is Vicenza Virtus's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Vicenza Virtus win33%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Modena win40%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.