9 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Porto vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Porto
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Porto 2-0 Alverca.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% FC Porto, 21% draw, 16% Alverca — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Porto at 63% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Porto99%Draw1%Alverca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•André Silva
5'
8'
Matheus Mendes
⚽Andre Silva (pen)
9'
•André Silva
40'
43'
Nabil Touaizi
⚽G. Veiga (pen)
44'
52'
Yaya Bojang
🔁A. Varelaout: P. Rosario
58'
🔁William Gomesout: B. Sainz
58'
60'
🔁V. Semedoout: S. J. Merheg
60'
🔁Y. Bojangout: Chissumba
🔁M. Fernandesout: N. Perez
74'
74'
🔁Ian Luccasout: Z. Kassary
🔁G. Veigaout: R. Mora
75'
79'
🔁Figueiredoout: M. Essimi
🔁Andre Silvaout: D. Gul
82'
89'
Chiquinho

Match stats — FC Porto vs Alverca

54%Possession46%
10Shots15
4On target5
7Corners9
2.59xG1.66

Goals against chances

FC Porto2 from 2.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Alverca0 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99D. CostaG
  • 52M. FernandesD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 12ZaiduD
  • 8V. FroholdtM
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 10G. VeigaM
  • 7William GomesF
  • 19Andre SilvaF
  • 11PepêF
Substitutes
  • 24J. CostaG
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 6S. EustaquioM
  • 18N. PerezD
  • 21D. PrpicD
  • 27D. GulF
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 74F. MouraD
Coach: Francesco Farioli
Alverca 3-4-3
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 14S. BaseyaD
  • 4Y. BojangD
  • 33B. MeupiyouD
  • 2N. TouaiziM
  • 25Ian LuccasM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 12I. JamesM
  • 10ChiquinhoF
  • 9V. SemedoF
  • 22FigueiredoF
Substitutes
  • 91Jhonatan LuizG
  • 21S. GomezD
  • 19M. EssimiF
  • 17S. J. MerhegF
  • 55ChissumbaD
  • 20D. SpencerD
  • 11C. NuozziF
  • 8V. MoreiraM
  • 30A. SoumareM
Coach: Sergio Ferreira

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Porto6600152+1318
12Alverca6123811-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Alverca

  • 9 August 2026FC Porto 2–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 2 May 2026FC Porto 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 22 December 2025Alverca 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: FC Porto and Alverca

FC Porto

  • Gabri Veiga3 goals3 assists
  • Borja Sainz3 goals
  • André Silva3 goals

Alverca

  • Vivaldo Semedo2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.