Nacional vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 2-3 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Nacional, 26% draw, 25% Estrela — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. MarinG
- 34Leo SantosD
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 38Ze VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 28LizieroM
- 22F. SoaresM
- 21W. KokoloM
- 8M. BaezaF
- 10Daniel JuniorF
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 13Joao GoncalvesG
- 50K. V. Medeiros de FreitasG
- 2D. I. de la CruzD
- 33C. GoncalvesD
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 88DeivisonM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 7M. JensenM
- 9A. ObandoF
- 24Leo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5S. LekovicD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 39G. DoueM
- 8RobinhoM
- 99A. MarcusF
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 10I. StoicaF
- 22D. GriloG
- 51D. PintoG
- 79A. ChernevD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 3L. MincarelliD
- 93B. SouzaM
- 78S. SerraM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 19Joan JordanM
Form going into Nacional vs Estrela
Nacional
- L0-1away to Vitória SC23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Estrela
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Estrela
- 30 August 2026Nacional 2–3 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 23 July 2026Estrela 2–0 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2026Nacional 2–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2025Estrela 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025Nacional 0–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024Estrela 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Estrela
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Estrela
- I. Stoica4 goals2 assists
- A. Marcus4 goals1 assists
- L. Antonetti4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.