Nacional vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 2-3 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Nacional, 26% draw, 25% Estrela — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Nacional at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. MarinG
- 34Leo SantosD
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 38Ze VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 28LizieroM
- 22F. SoaresM
- 21W. KokoloM
- 8M. BaezaF
- 10Daniel JuniorF
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 13Joao GoncalvesG
- 50K. V. Medeiros de FreitasG
- 2D. I. de la CruzD
- 33C. GoncalvesD
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 88DeivisonM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 7M. JensenM
- 9A. ObandoF
- 24Leo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 5S. LekovicD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 39G. DoueM
- 8RobinhoM
- 99A. MarcusF
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 10I. StoicaF
- 22D. GriloG
- 51D. PintoG
- 79A. ChernevD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 3L. MincarelliD
- 93B. SouzaM
- 78S. SerraM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 19Joan JordanM
Form going into Nacional vs Estrela
Nacional
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Guimaraes23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026
Estrela
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
- D2-2Sporting CP8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Estrela
- 23 July 2026Estrela 2–0 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2026Nacional 2–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2025Estrela 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025Nacional 0–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024Estrela 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Estrela
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estrela won 3–2 at Nacional. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional at 49% and given a win for Estrela 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Wesley Gasolina 3' for Nacional, I. Stoica (penalty) 45' for Estrela, A. Marcus 62' for Estrela, Pablo Ruan 66' for Nacional, L. Antonetti 83' for Estrela. On expected goals it finished 0.83–2.10.