Famalicao vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Famalicao, 29% draw, 28% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Famalicao at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs GIL Vicente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevicG
- 17R. PinheiroD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro BondoD
- 8M. PenaM
- 19P. MoreiraM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 14M. De AmorimM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 22Gabriel CabralG
- 2GarciaD
- 5L. MeyerD
- 36M. MattaraD
- 24M. JangealM
- 21T. Szucs
- 11O. ArandaF
- 10P. SantosF
- 30LucaoG
- 47R. EsgaioD
- 4M. ElimbiD
- 39J. BuatuD
- 26WeversonD
- 5F. CaseresM
- 86D. PriosteM
- 11J. FernandesM
- 32M. FernandezM
- 20G. Pinto MartinsM
- 23H. HernandezF
- 94Samuel PortugalG
- 3A. EspigaresD
- 45D. MoreiraD
- 2J. SilvaD
- 6Ze CarlosM
- 12A. LausenM
- 82G. MaiaM
- 77Murilo de SouzaF
- 99M. Kaba
Form going into Famalicao vs GIL Vicente
Famalicao
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026
GIL Vicente
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente
- 1 February 2026GIL Vicente 5–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2025Famalicao 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 17 February 2025GIL Vicente 0–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 14 September 2024Famalicao 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and GIL Vicente
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
GIL Vicente
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Famalicao and GIL Vicente drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Famalicao at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.23–0.28.