30 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Famalicao vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Famalicao, 29% draw, 28% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Famalicao at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Famalicao5%Draw92%GIL Vicente3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
H. Hernandez
37'
F. Caseres
46'
🔁F. Caseresout: Ze Carlos
59'
R. Esgaio
64'
🔁J. Fernandesout: Murilo de Souza
64'
🔁M. Fernandezout: M. Kaba
68'
Weverson
🔁Gil Diasout: R. Beney
69'
F. van Breemen
70'
76'
🔁G. Pinto Martinsout: T. Toure
P. Moreira
77'
🔁Pedro Bondoout: L. Meyer
77'
🔁M. De Amorimout: O. Aranda
77'
🔁Sorrisoout: M. Jangeal
87'
🔁G. Koutsiasout: U. Abubakar
87'
88'
🔁H. Hernandezout: A. Lausen

Match stats — Famalicao vs GIL Vicente

56%Possession44%
7Shots7
1On target1
6Corners3
0.23xG0.28

Goals against chances

Famalicao0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
GIL Vicente0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevicG
  • 17R. PinheiroD
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro BondoD
  • 8M. PenaM
  • 19P. MoreiraM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 14M. De AmorimM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 22Gabriel CabralG
  • 2GarciaD
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 36M. MattaraD
  • 24M. JangealM
  • 21T. Szucs
  • 11O. ArandaF
  • 10P. SantosF
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucaoG
  • 47R. EsgaioD
  • 4M. ElimbiD
  • 39J. BuatuD
  • 26WeversonD
  • 5F. CaseresM
  • 86D. PriosteM
  • 11J. FernandesM
  • 32M. FernandezM
  • 20G. Pinto MartinsM
  • 23H. HernandezF
Substitutes
  • 94Samuel PortugalG
  • 3A. EspigaresD
  • 45D. MoreiraD
  • 2J. SilvaD
  • 6Ze CarlosM
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 82G. MaiaM
  • 77Murilo de SouzaF
  • 99M. Kaba
Coach: Luis Pinto

Form going into Famalicao vs GIL Vicente

Famalicao

  • L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
  • L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026

GIL Vicente

  • W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
  • W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Famalicao604257-24
9GIL Vicente52124407

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente

  • 30 August 2026Famalicao 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 1 February 2026GIL Vicente 5–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 24 August 2025Famalicao 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 17 February 2025GIL Vicente 0–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 14 September 2024Famalicao 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Famalicao and GIL Vicente

Famalicao

  • G. Koutsias3 goals

GIL Vicente

  • Héctor Hernández3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.