30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Casa Pia vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result

Rio Maior
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Casa Pia, 30% draw, 25% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Casa Pia at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Casa Pia0%Draw5%Moreirense95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Aranha
24'
⚽Kikoassist: J. Veloso
🔁Rochinhaout: A. Dafe
46'
Pedro Rosas
61'
🔁K. Prietoout: Cassiano
61'
62'
Kiko
65'
🔁N. Johnout: Rodri
65'
🔁Landersonout: T. Andrade
71'
Rodrigo Alonso
77'
🔁Kikoout: L. Santos
🔁S. Cluaout: S. Perez
78'
🔁A. Jattaout: H. Araujo
78'
🔁J. Regoout: B. Pauwels
78'
78'
🔁M. Mendoncaout: M. Stjepanovic
82'
🔁J. Velosoout: Kevyn Monteiro

Match stats — Casa Pia vs Moreirense

62%Possession38%
14Shots6
2On target5
5Corners1
0.77xG0.28

Goals against chances

Casa Pia0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Moreirense1 from 0.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. GomesG
  • 18A. GeraldesD
  • 4J. GoulartD
  • 43D. SousaD
  • 75P. RosasD
  • 16S. CluaM
  • 80L. OforiM
  • 19K. PrietoM
  • 70J. RegoM
  • 10RochinhaM
  • 20A. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 95I. MandicG
  • 5A. ConteD
  • 3KalyD
  • 24S. PerezM
  • 8GabiM
  • 98JPM
  • 59A. DafeM
  • 9H. AraujoF
  • 77B. PauwelsF
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 76D. PintoD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 26MaracasD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 7M. MendoncaM
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 11LandersonM
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 21RodriM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 10K. BondosoF
  • 19T. AndradeF
  • 89A. VieiraF
Coach: Vasco Costa

Form going into Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Casa Pia

  • L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
  • L0-7Benfica17 August 2026

Moreirense

  • L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Casa Pia6015115-141
11Moreirense6213713-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Moreirense

  • 30 August 2026Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 1 March 2026Casa Pia 1–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 27 September 2025Moreirense 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 15 February 2025Moreirense 3–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 14 September 2024Casa Pia 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 12 May 2024Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.