30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Casa Pia vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result

Rio Maior
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Casa Pia, 30% draw, 25% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Casa Pia at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Casa Pia0%Draw5%Moreirense95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Aranha
24'
⚽Kikoassist: J. Veloso
🔁Rochinhaout: A. Dafe
46'
Pedro Rosas
61'
🔁K. Prietoout: Cassiano
61'
62'
Kiko
65'
🔁N. Johnout: Rodri
65'
🔁Landersonout: T. Andrade
71'
Rodrigo Alonso
77'
🔁Kikoout: L. Santos
🔁S. Cluaout: S. Perez
78'
🔁A. Jattaout: H. Araujo
78'
🔁J. Regoout: B. Pauwels
78'
78'
🔁M. Mendoncaout: M. Stjepanovic
82'
🔁J. Velosoout: Kevyn Monteiro

Match stats — Casa Pia vs Moreirense

62%Possession38%
14Shots6
2On target5
5Corners1
0.77xG0.28

Goals against chances

Casa Pia0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Moreirense1 from 0.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. GomesG
  • 18A. GeraldesD
  • 4J. GoulartD
  • 43D. SousaD
  • 75P. RosasD
  • 16S. CluaM
  • 80L. OforiM
  • 19K. PrietoM
  • 70J. RegoM
  • 10RochinhaM
  • 20A. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 95I. MandicG
  • 5A. ConteD
  • 3KalyD
  • 24S. PerezM
  • 8GabiM
  • 98JPM
  • 59A. DafeM
  • 9H. AraujoF
  • 77B. PauwelsF
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 76D. PintoD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 26MaracasD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 7M. MendoncaM
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 11LandersonM
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 21RodriM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 10K. BondosoF
  • 19T. AndradeF
  • 89A. VieiraF
Coach: Vasco Costa

Form going into Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Casa Pia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
  • L0-7Benfica17 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026

Moreirense

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
  • D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Casa Pia11227620-148
9Moreirense114251318-514

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Moreirense

  • 1 March 2026Casa Pia 1–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 27 September 2025Moreirense 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 15 February 2025Moreirense 3–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 14 September 2024Casa Pia 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 12 May 2024Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

The full Casa Pia vs Moreirense record →

Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Moreirense

Casa Pia

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Moreirense

GoalsAssists

  • N. John30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Moreirense won 1–0 at Casa Pia. The model had leaned towards a win for Casa Pia at 45% and given a win for Moreirense 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Kiko 24' for Moreirense. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.28.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.