Blackburn vs QPR Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 1-2 QPR.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Blackburn, 24% draw, 29% QPR — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Blackburn at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs QPR
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Balázs TóthG
- 2Ryan AlebiosuD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15Sean McLoughlinD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 28Adam ForshawM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 25Ryoya MorishitaM
- 10Todd CantwellM
- 21Oladapo AfolayanM
- 9Andri GuðjohnsenF
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 39Harvey PatesD
- 30Jake GarrettM
- 11Jayden FevrierF
- 53Frank VareM
- 1Aynsley PearsG
- 47Lucas HoughtonD
- 42Harry ListerM
- 36James EdmondsonM
- 1Pierce CharlesG
- 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
- 3Jimmy DunneD
- 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
- 19Dennis CirkinD
- 11Paul SmythM
- 5Ronnie EdwardsM
- 24Nicolas MadsenM
- 10Ilias ChairM
- 22Richard KoneF
- 16Rumarn BurrellF
- 48Tariq LampteyD
- 18Glen KamaraM
- 15Alfie LloydF
- 17Kwame PokuM
- 2Kealey AdamsonD
- 13Calum WardG
- 20Harvey ValeM
- 14Koki SaitoF
- 40Jonathan VaraneM
Form going into Blackburn vs QPR
Blackburn
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Middlesbrough22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
QPR
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Bolton22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs QPR
- 14 February 2026QPR 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
- 26 November 2025Blackburn 0–1 QPRChampionship
- 4 February 2025QPR 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 28 September 2024Blackburn 2–0 QPRChampionship
- 3 February 2024Blackburn 1–2 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and QPR
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
QPR won 2–1 at Blackburn. The model had leaned towards a win for Blackburn at 47% and given a win for QPR 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ryoya Morishita 49' for Blackburn, Paul Smyth 51' for QPR, Jimmy Dunne 74' for QPR. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.30.