29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Blackburn vs QPR Championship prediction & result

Ewood Park, Blackburn
Full time1 2

Final score: Blackburn 1-2 QPR.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Blackburn, 24% draw, 29% QPR — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Blackburn at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Blackburn0%Draw5%QPR95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
Jake Clarke-Salter
40'
Ronnie Edwards
46'
🔁Dennis Cirkinout: Tariq Lamptey
46'
🔁Nicolas Madsenout: Glen Kamara
Ryoya Morishitaassist: Andri Guðjohnsen
49'
51'
Paul Smythassist: Rumarn Burrell
🔁Adam Forshawout: Sam Morsy
57'
57'
🔁Richard Koneout: Alfie Lloyd
64'
🔁Paul Smythout: Kwame Poku
Andri Guðjohnsen
65'
74'
Jimmy Dunneassist: Tariq Lamptey
Sean McLoughlin
76'
Sam Morsy
80'
80'
🔁Amadou Salif Mbengueout: Kealey Adamson
🔁Oladapo Afolayanout: Jayden Fevrier
81'
🔁Kristi Montgomeryout: Jake Garrett
81'
🔁Yuri Ribeiroout: Harvey Pates
81'
🔁Todd Cantwellout: Frank Vare
88'

Match stats — Blackburn vs QPR

55%Possession45%
12Shots19
2On target6
3Corners3
1.02xG1.3

Goals against chances

Blackburn1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
QPR2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Blackburn
  • 22Balázs TóthG
  • 2Ryan AlebiosuD
  • 6Tom AtchesonD
  • 15Sean McLoughlinD
  • 4Yuri RibeiroD
  • 28Adam ForshawM
  • 31Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 25Ryoya MorishitaM
  • 10Todd CantwellM
  • 21Oladapo AfolayanM
  • 9Andri GuðjohnsenF
Substitutes
  • 8Sam MorsyM
  • 39Harvey PatesD
  • 30Jake GarrettM
  • 11Jayden FevrierF
  • 53Frank VareM
  • 1Aynsley PearsG
  • 47Lucas HoughtonD
  • 42Harry ListerM
  • 36James EdmondsonM
Coach: Tony Mowbray
QPR
  • 1Pierce CharlesG
  • 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
  • 3Jimmy DunneD
  • 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
  • 19Dennis CirkinD
  • 11Paul SmythM
  • 5Ronnie EdwardsM
  • 24Nicolas MadsenM
  • 10Ilias ChairM
  • 22Richard KoneF
  • 16Rumarn BurrellF
Substitutes
  • 48Tariq LampteyD
  • 18Glen KamaraM
  • 15Alfie LloydF
  • 17Kwame PokuM
  • 2Kealey AdamsonD
  • 13Calum WardG
  • 20Harvey ValeM
  • 14Koki SaitoF
  • 40Jonathan VaraneM
Coach: Julien Stephan

Form going into Blackburn vs QPR

Blackburn

  • W2-1Middlesbrough22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026

QPR

  • D0-0Bolton22 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Portsmouth15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Blackburn7223101008
5QPR733185+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Blackburn vs QPR

  • 29 August 2026Blackburn 1–2 QPRChampionship
  • 14 February 2026QPR 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
  • 26 November 2025Blackburn 0–1 QPRChampionship
  • 4 February 2025QPR 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
  • 28 September 2024Blackburn 2–0 QPRChampionship
  • 3 February 2024Blackburn 1–2 QPRChampionship

Leading scorers: Blackburn and QPR

Blackburn

  • A. Guðjohnsen3 goals1 assists

QPR

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.