Bolton vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 0-1 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bolton, 30% draw, 30% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bolton at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jack BonhamG
- 5Lewis BruntD
- 3Chris ForinoD
- 14Akin FamewoD
- 25Max ConwayD
- 8Josh SheehanM
- 21Ethan ErhahonM
- 16Samuel Iling JuniorM
- 45John McAteeM
- 11Thierry GaleM
- 10Sam DalbyF
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 7Kyliane DongF
- 26Jayden NelsonF
- 39Ryan HardieF
- 12David WatsonM
- 31Gavin BazunuG
- 18Eoin ToalD
- 6Ben DaviesD
- 54Tobias RitchieM
- 1George WickensG
- 25Deji ElereweD
- 6Ryley TowlerD
- 20Callum ElderD
- 16Dom JefferiesM
- 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
- 14Conor McGrandlesM
- 3Adam ReachM
- 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildF
- 34Freddie DraperF
- 18Ben HouseF
- 17Robert StreetF
- 19Tanto OlaofeF
- 8Tom BaylissM
- 23Joshua HonohanD
- 46Joe GauciG
- 4Andrei CoubișD
- 26Yunus KonakM
- 29Ethan WheatleyF
- 10Mason MeliaF
Form going into Bolton vs Lincoln
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Portsmouth22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Lincoln
- 14 February 2026Lincoln 1–1 BoltonLeague One
- 23 August 2025Bolton 1–1 LincolnLeague One
- 21 April 2025Lincoln 4–2 BoltonLeague One
- 14 January 2025Lincoln 0–1 BoltonEFL Trophy
- 29 December 2024Bolton 3–0 LincolnLeague One
Leading scorers: Bolton and Lincoln
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lincoln won 1–0 at Bolton. The model had leaned towards a win for Bolton at 40% and given a win for Lincoln 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ben House 66' for Lincoln. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.05.