Bolton vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 0-1 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bolton, 30% draw, 30% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jack BonhamG
- 5Lewis BruntD
- 3Chris ForinoD
- 14Akin FamewoD
- 25Max ConwayD
- 8Josh SheehanM
- 21Ethan ErhahonM
- 16Samuel Iling JuniorM
- 45John McAteeM
- 11Thierry GaleM
- 10Sam DalbyF
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 7Kyliane DongF
- 26Jayden NelsonF
- 39Ryan HardieF
- 12David WatsonM
- 31Gavin BazunuG
- 18Eoin ToalD
- 6Ben DaviesD
- 54Tobias RitchieM
- 1George WickensG
- 25Deji ElereweD
- 6Ryley TowlerD
- 20Callum ElderD
- 16Dom JefferiesM
- 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
- 14Conor McGrandlesM
- 3Adam ReachM
- 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildF
- 34Freddie DraperF
- 18Ben HouseF
- 17Robert StreetF
- 19Tanto OlaofeF
- 8Tom BaylissM
- 23Joshua HonohanD
- 46Joe GauciG
- 4Andrei CoubișD
- 26Yunus KonakM
- 29Ethan WheatleyF
- 10Mason MeliaF
Form going into Bolton vs Lincoln
Bolton
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
Lincoln
- L1-3Portsmouth22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Lincoln
- 29 August 2026Bolton 0–1 LincolnChampionship
- 14 February 2026Lincoln 1–1 BoltonLeague One
- 23 August 2025Bolton 1–1 LincolnLeague One
- 21 April 2025Lincoln 4–2 BoltonLeague One
- 14 January 2025Lincoln 0–1 BoltonEFL Trophy
- 29 December 2024Bolton 3–0 LincolnLeague One