Charlton vs Preston Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 1-0 Preston.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Charlton, 23% draw, 25% Preston — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlton at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Preston
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Arthur OkonkwoG
- 20Danny McNamaraD
- 5Lloyd JonesD
- 17Amari'i BellD
- 18Ivan MesíkD
- 6Conor CoventryM
- 15Nathaniel ChalobahM
- 7Tyreece CampbellM
- 14Sonny CareyM
- 9Karlan GrantM
- 11Miles LeaburnF
- 19Millenic AlliF
- 32Alan MwambaD
- 33Micah MbickF
- 31Nathan AsiimweD
- 26Joe Rankin-CostelloM
- 21Tiernan BrooksG
- 16Timothy OumaM
- 30Robert ApterM
- 8Harvey KnibbsM
- 1Daniel IversenG
- 4Harry ClarkeD
- 24Odeluga OffiahD
- 6Liam LindsayD
- 19Lewis GibsonD
- 3Andrija VukčevićD
- 15Jordan ThompsonM
- 27Leo LeroyM
- 7Alfie DevineM
- 10Callum LangF
- 37Delano BurgzorgF
- 17Stanley MillsM
- 9Jusef ErabiF
- 11Thierry SmallD
- 12Caleb WileyD
- 21Lee NichollsG
- 2Pol ValentínD
- 14Jordan StoreyD
- 23Andrew MoranM
- 30George GrybaF
Form going into Charlton vs Preston
Charlton
- W2-1away to West Ham22 August 2026
- W2-1Derby15 August 2026
Preston
- L1-3Wolves22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Bolton15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Preston
- 29 August 2026Charlton 1–0 PrestonChampionship
- 11 April 2026Charlton 1–2 PrestonChampionship
- 4 October 2025Preston 2–0 CharltonChampionship
- 14 January 2025Preston 2–1 CharltonFA Cup
- 18 January 2020Preston 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 3 November 2019Charlton 0–1 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Charlton and Preston
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.