Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 2-2 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cardiff, 27% draw, 26% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Nathan TrottG
- 38Perry NgD
- 5Krystian BielikD
- 4Gabriel OshoD
- 3Joel BaganD
- 18Alex RobertsonM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 11Ollie TannerM
- 10Rubin ColwillM
- 8Jack MoylanM
- 9Yousef SalechF
- 16Chris WillockM
- 27Joel ColwillM
- 39Isaak DaviesF
- 47Callum RobinsonF
- 23Calum ScanlonD
- 30Harry TyrerG
- 44Ronan KpakioD
- 33Rob TankiewiczM
- 14David TurnbullM
- 1Michael CooperG
- 33Jamal BaptisteD
- 5Japhet TangangaD
- 25Mark McGuinnessD
- 3Sam McCallumD
- 11Romelle DonovanM
- 7Joe RothwellM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 10Callum O'HareM
- 45Patrick BamfordF
- 9Thomas CannonF
- 16Jamie ShackletonD
- 27Kalvin PhillipsM
- 30Rhys Norrington-DaviesD
- 44Jaïro RiedewaldM
- 22Ben Brereton DíazF
- 17Adam DaviesG
- 2Matt DohertyD
- 23Tyrese CampbellF
- 34Louie MarshF
Form going into Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
Cardiff
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
- D0-0away to Swansea22 August 2026
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
- 29 August 2026Cardiff 2–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 18 April 2025Sheffield Utd 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 9 January 2025Sheffield Utd 0–1 CardiffFA Cup
- 21 December 2024Cardiff 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 15 April 2023Sheffield Utd 4–1 CardiffChampionship
- 12 November 2022Cardiff 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship