Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 2-2 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cardiff, 27% draw, 26% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cardiff at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Nathan TrottG
- 38Perry NgD
- 5Krystian BielikD
- 4Gabriel OshoD
- 3Joel BaganD
- 18Alex RobertsonM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 11Ollie TannerM
- 10Rubin ColwillM
- 8Jack MoylanM
- 9Yousef SalechF
- 16Chris WillockM
- 27Joel ColwillM
- 39Isaak DaviesF
- 47Callum RobinsonF
- 23Calum ScanlonD
- 30Harry TyrerG
- 44Ronan KpakioD
- 33Rob TankiewiczM
- 14David TurnbullM
- 1Michael CooperG
- 33Jamal BaptisteD
- 5Japhet TangangaD
- 25Mark McGuinnessD
- 3Sam McCallumD
- 11Romelle DonovanM
- 7Joe RothwellM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 10Callum O'HareM
- 45Patrick BamfordF
- 9Thomas CannonF
- 16Jamie ShackletonD
- 27Kalvin PhillipsM
- 30Rhys Norrington-DaviesD
- 44Jaïro RiedewaldM
- 22Ben Brereton DíazF
- 17Adam DaviesG
- 2Matt DohertyD
- 23Tyrese CampbellF
- 34Louie MarshF
Form going into Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Swansea22 August 2026
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd
- 18 April 2025Sheffield Utd 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 9 January 2025Sheffield Utd 0–1 CardiffFA Cup
- 21 December 2024Cardiff 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 15 April 2023Sheffield Utd 4–1 CardiffChampionship
- 12 November 2022Cardiff 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Sheffield Utd
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cardiff and Sheffield Utd drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Cardiff at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Moylan 2' for Cardiff, Thomas Cannon (penalty) 4' for Sheffield Utd, Callum O'Hare 7' for Sheffield Utd, Cian Ashford 38' for Cardiff. On expected goals it finished 2.27–1.53.