Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Bnei Sakhnin 1-1 Ironi Tiberias.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bnei Sakhnin, 32% draw, 37% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Ironi Tiberias at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BălbărăuG
- 13L. OwusuD
- 5I. Abu AbaidD
- 4O. DahanD
- 92Saná GomesD
- 10M. Anim CudjoeM
- 6A. TahaM
- 8M. VorobjovasM
- 28I. HagagM
- 9D. ParaschivF
- 29A. SalmanF
- 22M. Abu NilG
- 20M. GanameD
- 2M. GantusD
- 66B. Abu RayaM
- 19S. TagiM
- 24B. KhuriF
- 11J. BushnaqF
- 77A. SeferF
- 16L. HalafF
- 22I. SharonG
- 30M. BadjieD
- 17R. UngerD
- 37O. BačoD
- 13Z. MorganD
- 47D. GolaniD
- 11niv gotliebM
- 18E. ShamirM
- 3D. KeltjensM
- 84N. GbambléM
- 12Ghanam CaseF
- 1G. AmosG
- 14G. SankerD
- 23C. KouakouM
- 8A. CohenM
- 27Y. SwisaM
- 10B. CohenM
- 9A. MiranyanF
- 7S. FarhudF
- 5N. ChenD
Form going into Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al
- W1-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona24 October 2026
- W2-0Hapoel Petah Tikva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bnei Sakhnin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
- 25 July 2026Ironi Tiberias 2–1 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
- 18 April 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 24 January 2026Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 18 October 2025Bnei Sakhnin 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 27 July 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–1 Ironi TiberiasToto Cup Ligat Al
- 29 March 2025Bnei Sakhnin 2–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
The result against the call
Bnei Sakhnin and Ironi Tiberias drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ironi Tiberias at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Badjie 19' for Ironi Tiberias, ori dahan 75' for Bnei Sakhnin. On expected goals it finished 3.35–0.57.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bnei Sakhnin a 15.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.3% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 15.6%.
For Ironi Tiberias the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 45.3% going in: 36.4% after a win, 46.6% after a draw, 54.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.6%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bnei Sakhnin v Ironi Tiberias has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 28% / 31% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 32% / 37%: the biggest move is Ironi Tiberias's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Bnei Sakhnin win31%▲ +3
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Ironi Tiberias win37%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.