1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-5 Hapoel Beer Sheva.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Maccabi Petah Tikva, 20% draw, 62% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 5.56, 5.00 and 1.61.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maccabi Petah Tikva0%Draw1%Hapoel Beer Sheva99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Niv·Yehoshua
⚽Liran Hazanassist: E. Inbrum
29'
⚽Guy Deznet
45+1'
45'
🔁guy mizrahiout: Yoan Stoyanov
45'
🔁Hamode Kanaanout: zahi ahmed
45'
🔁Javon Eastout: Adrián Ugarriza
45'
🔁João Victorout: Amir Chaim·Ganah
Bashar Abdach
60'
60'
•Adrián Ugarriza
65'
⚽Igor Zlatanović (pen)
71'
⚽Niv·Yehoshuaassist: Amir Chaim·Ganah
73'
zahi ahmed
77'
•Niv·Yehoshua
78'
Ran Kozuch
🔁Bashar Abdachout: Or dadia
81'
🔁E. Inbrumout: Guy Hadida
81'
🔁Eloge Yaoout: K. Spence
81'
83'
🔁Djibril diopout: Idan Nachmias
85'
⚽zahi ahmedassist: Yoan Stoyanov
🔁Samuel Owusuout: Yoav Koren
87'
🔁Ido Cohenout: Lior Kasa
87'
89'
⚽Adrián Ugarrizaassist: Pedro Miguel Santos Amador
90+5'
Igor Zlatanović

Match stats — Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

37%Possession63%
12Shots12
4On target7
1Corners2
1.07xG3.09

Goals against chances

Maccabi Petah Tikva2 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hapoel Beer Sheva5 from 3.09 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Maccabi Petah Tikva 5-4-1
  • 1D. HevronG
  • 26G. DeznetD
  • 6E. YaoD
  • 18E. TibiD
  • 22Bashar AbdachD
  • 17A. SalemD
  • 9S. OwusuM
  • 20I. CohenM
  • 99Eyal InbrumM
  • 77J. CortésM
  • 53L. HazanF
Substitutes
  • 7K. SpenceF
  • 39M. ErlichG
  • 30O. DadyaD
  • 12I. BaruchD
  • 23G. HadidaM
  • 24L. KasaM
  • 27Y. KorenF
  • 44P. KorreaD
  • 97M. RakonjacF
Coach: Z. Arie
Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 44D. DiopD
  • 4M. VítorD
  • 5Pedro AmadorD
  • 17A. ForsonM
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 8M. Kna'anM
  • 20J. EastF
  • 66I. ZlatanovićF
  • 70João VictorF
Substitutes
  • 9Z. AhmedF
  • 3M. BaltaxaD
  • 11A. GanahF
  • 14Y. MaledeF
  • 15I. NachmiasD
  • 27Y. StoyanovM
  • 90A. UgarrizaF
  • 45M. Abu RumiF
  • 34M. WolffG
Coach: R. Kojok

Form going into Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Ligat Ha'al

  • W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan24 October 2026
  • L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ligat Ha'al

  • W5-2away to Maccabi Haifa26 October 2026
  • W2-1Hapoel Jerusalem18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Maccabi Petah Tikva103161623-710
3Hapoel Beer Sheva107122213+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • 25 January 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 20 October 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–5 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 30 May 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaState Cup
  • 17 February 2024Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 16 December 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–4 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
  • 2 March 2022Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaState Cup

Leading scorers: Maccabi Petah Tikva and Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Petah Tikva

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cortés41
  • L. Hazan31

Hapoel Beer Sheva

GoalsAssists

  • I. Zlatanović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hapoel Beer Sheva won 5–2 at Maccabi Petah Tikva. The model had made a win for Hapoel Beer Sheva its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Niv·Yehoshua 15' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, Liran Hazan 29' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, Guy Deznet 45+1' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, Igor Zlatanović (penalty) 65' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, Niv·Yehoshua 71' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, zahi ahmed 85' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, Adrián Ugarriza 89' for Hapoel Beer Sheva. On expected goals it finished 1.07–3.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maccabi Petah Tikva a 27.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.3% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.8%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Hapoel Beer Sheva the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 15.7% going in: 17.7% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.