Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Netanya 1-1 Hapoel Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Maccabi Netanya, 25% draw, 27% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Netanya at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22SamuG
- 12A. AzugiD
- 23O. VerdonD
- 44Benny FeldmanD
- 2G. MorozovD
- 13N. NiddamM
- 32A. OuattaraM
- 10O. BiluM
- 16B. ZaaruraM
- 7IsaacM
- 83Matheus DavóF
- 11D. HugiF
- 1N. AntmanG
- 26K. JaberD
- 6B. KonatéD
- 5D. KulikovD
- 15M. LeviM
- 98G. SimionM
- 21A. TalpaM
- 9E. AlmogF
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 21A. FaradaD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 20O. NadirD
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 19N. VrasanaM
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 22T. HaimovichM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 10V. DamaşcanF
- 70S. ZuberuD
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 7O. AlmagorF
- 26I. CohenD
- 33I. DaphahF
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 8I. MadmonM
- 18L. MizrachiD
Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Netanya
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1away to Ironi Tiberias24 October 2026
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-3Hapoel Tel Aviv24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva18 October 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maccabi Netanya | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 25 July 2026Maccabi Netanya 3–1 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 4 May 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 9 January 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 27 September 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 1–2 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 9 August 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–0 Maccabi NetanyaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 8 February 2025Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Netanya
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Davó52
- O. Bilu33
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- N. Vrasana50
- A. Idoko42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Netanya and Hapoel Jerusalem drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Maccabi Netanya at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Isaac Rodrigues de Lima 44' for Maccabi Netanya, N. Vrasana 69' for Hapoel Jerusalem. Sent off: Isaac Rodrigues de Lima (Maccabi Netanya) 78'. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maccabi Netanya a 40.0% chance to finish in the top six: 45.9% after a win, 35.8% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.8%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For Hapoel Jerusalem the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.8% after a win, 33.9% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 33.9%.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel Jerusalem has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Maccabi Netanya's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Maccabi Netanya win48%▲ +2
- Draw25%=
- Hapoel Jerusalem win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.