31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result

Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Kilmarnock 2-2 St Johnstone.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kilmarnock, 26% draw, 34% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kilmarnock at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kilmarnock6%Draw91%St Johnstone3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
•Toby Steward
13'
Toby Steward
14'
🔁Taylor Stevenout: Ross Sinclair
⚽Cathal McCarthyassist: Djenairo Daniels
14'
35'
Jason Holt
35'
Matty Todd
Aaron Tshibola
37'
40'
⚽Danny schmidtassist: Enes Alic
⚽Djenairo Danielsassist: Joe Hugill
41'
45'
🔁Matty Toddout: Matthew Foulds
45'
🔁Josh Fowlerout: Josh Campbell
Jamie Brandon
56'
🔁Erik Ringout: Nicky Clescenco
58'
🔁Djenairo Danielsout: Tyreece John-Jules
58'
63'
🔁Jason Holtout: Logan Chalmers
65'
⚽Joel Cotterill
67'
🔁Božo Mikulićout: Daniel Finlayson
🔁Robbie Deasout: Michael Schjonning-Larsen
71'
Nicky Clescenco
83'

Match stats — Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone

63%Possession37%
22Shots6
6On target3
10Corners2
3.39xG0.8

Goals against chances

Kilmarnock2 from 3.39 xGless than the chances were worth
St Johnstone2 from 0.80 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2
  • 58N. MantlG
  • 4C. McCarthyD
  • 6R. DeasD
  • 14G. StangerD
  • 2J. BrandonM
  • 36A. TshibolaM
  • 18T. LoweryM
  • 8E. RingM
  • 11G. KiltieM
  • 9J. HugillF
  • 29D. DanielsF
Substitutes
  • 23Roshaun MathurinM
  • 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
  • 7R. McKenzieM
  • 19J. MeierD
  • 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 20N. CleșcencoF
  • 27I. OwenF
  • 10T. John-JulesF
  • 12C. FerrieG
Coach: N. McCann
St Johnstone 3-4-2-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 6B. MikulićD
  • 2E. AlıçD
  • 26M. ToddM
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 30J. CotterillM
  • 7T. StevenM
  • 9J. FowlerM
  • 22D. SchmidtF
Substitutes
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 10J. GullanF
  • 99R. PatonF
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 25M. TaitM
  • 52A. BrookfieldD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
Coach: S. Valakari

Form going into Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone

Kilmarnock

Premiership

  • L1-3away to Dundee28 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
  • W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026

St Johnstone

Premiership

  • D2-2Motherwell28 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Rangers24 October 2026
  • D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Kilmarnock132381329-169
7St Johnstone134541720-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone

  • 2 August 2026St Johnstone 4–3 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
  • 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership

Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and St Johnstone

Kilmarnock

GoalsAssists

  • G. Kiltie30

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kilmarnock and St Johnstone drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Kilmarnock at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Cathal McCarthy 14' for Kilmarnock, Danny schmidt 40' for St Johnstone, Djenairo Daniels 41' for Kilmarnock, Joel Cotterill 65' for St Johnstone. Sent off: Toby Steward (St Johnstone) 13'. On expected goals it finished 3.39–0.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kilmarnock a 76.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 71.5% after a win, 78.5% after a draw, 83.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 78.5%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For St Johnstone the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.0% after a win, 34.0% after a draw, 39.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 34.0%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kilmarnock v St Johnstone has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Kilmarnock's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Kilmarnock win40%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%=
  3. St Johnstone win34%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.