Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Boca Juniors, 28% draw, 20% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 20A. VelascoF
- 16M. MerentielF
- 22S. VillaF
- 19L. FloresF
- 4N. FigalD
- 24D. GorositoD
- 7C. PalaciosM
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 13E. ValenciaF
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 10T. ArandaM
- 8T. BelmonteM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernándezD
- 21D. MartínezD
- 30D. DomínguezD
- 8C. PérezM
- 15S. SosaM
- 26J. LuccoM
- 22M. PorcelM
- 24J. GutiérrezM
- 9L. FernándezF
- 36L. AmadéG
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 27D. BlancoM
- 6E. BurdinD
- 41Ramiro GagliardiF
- 17A. HauschF
- 10A. MolinasM
- 11Tiziano PerrotaF
- 16A. PortilloM
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0River Plate1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente25 October 2026
- W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Independiente2 November 2026
- W2-1away to Talleres Cordoba24 October 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Boca Juniors won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Defensa Y Justicia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 23 April 2026Defensa Y Justicia 0–4 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 September 2025Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2025Boca Juniors 4–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 July 2024Defensa Y Justicia 2–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 February 2024Boca Juniors 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 15 September 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors beat Defensa Y Justicia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Boca Juniors at 52%. The goal: Enner Valencia 90+6' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 1.78–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Boca Juniors a 9.5% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 16.4% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.4%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Boca Juniors v Defensa Y Justicia has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Defensa Y Justicia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Boca Juniors win52%=
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Defensa Y Justicia win20%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.