7 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Referee: M. Manduca
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Banfield 2-2 Atletico Tucuman.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Banfield, 30% draw, 30% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Banfield at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Banfield4%Draw93%Atletico Tucuman3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•David Zalazar
3'
15'
⚽Juan Rodriguezassist: Lautaro Godoy
18'
⚽Juan Rodriguezassist: Lautaro Godoy
43'
Juan Infante
Tomas Adoryan
43'
🔁Brandon Oviedoout: Lautaro Villegas
45'
🔁Juan Luis Alfaroout: Alexander Machado
45'
🔁David Zalazarout: Santiago López García
45'
⚽Alexander Machadoassist: Tomas Adoryan
58'
🔁Federico Medinaout: Lisandro Geronimo Piñero
60'
Santiago Daniele
61'
🔁Santiago Danieleout: Nehuén Paz
66'
67'
🔁Iván Tesuriout: Gabriel Compagnucci
68'
🔁Facundo Pimientaout: Ezequiel Ham
⚽Lautaro Martín Gómez
78'
89'
🔁Lautaro Godoyout: Franco Nicola
90'
🔁Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguezout: Manuel Brondo

Match stats — Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

60%Possession40%
15Shots8
4On target4
6Corners4
0.73xG0.43

Goals against chances

Banfield2 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atletico Tucuman2 from 0.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Banfield 4-3-3
  • 50D. RodríguezG
  • 4J. AlfaroD
  • 2S. DanieleD
  • 6N. MerianoD
  • 27I. AbrahamD
  • 10L. GómezM
  • 13Brandon OviedoM
  • 20T. AdoryánM
  • 18Federico MedinaF
  • 9A. BalboaF
  • 40D. ZalazarF
Substitutes
  • 70J. ArteagaM
  • 30F. AnselmoF
  • 19L. CanoD
  • 28M. HernándezF
  • 24S. LópezM
  • 22A. MachadoF
  • 35I. PaisM
  • 3N. PazD
  • 7Lisandro PiñeroF
Coach: P. Troglio
Atletico Tucuman 4-3-3
  • 1L. IngolottiG
  • 24L. Di PlácidoD
  • 26C. FerreiraD
  • 17J. RodríguezD
  • 32J. InfanteD
  • 31L. GodoyM
  • 5J. FernándezM
  • 22F. PimientaM
  • 11R. TesuriF
  • 18R. Ruíz RodríguezF
  • 14A. CaneloF
Substitutes
  • 23N. LaméndolaF
  • 4Tomas JungM
  • 8E. HamM
  • 27R. GranilloF
  • 21I. GalvánD
  • 6G. FerrariD
  • 9L. DíazF
  • 25T. DursoG
  • 28G. CompagnucciD
Coach: J. Falcioni

Form going into Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

Banfield

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-3away to Independiente Rivadavia3 November 2026
  • D1-1Lanus24 October 2026
  • L0-1Argentinos Juniors17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Tigre10 October 2026

Atletico Tucuman

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L1-2Argentinos Juniors3 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Tigre24 October 2026
  • L2-3Rosario Central17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Banfield conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Banfield failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Banfield scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Banfield163671825-715
11Atletico Tucuman164661617-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

  • 26 April 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 July 2024Banfield 1–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 March 2024Atletico Tucuman 0–3 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 16 October 2023Banfield 0–0 Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 5 March 2023Atletico Tucuman 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 September 2022Atletico Tucuman 0–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman record →

The result against the call

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Banfield at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Rodriguez 15' for Atletico Tucuman, Juan Rodriguez 18' for Atletico Tucuman, Alexander Machado 58' for Banfield, Lautaro Martín Gómez 78' for Banfield. On expected goals it finished 0.73–0.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Banfield a 31.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 31 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.