Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 1-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Gimnasia Mendoza, 28% draw, 31% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia Mendoza at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. RigamontiG
- 32L. ParedesD
- 42L. CarreraD
- 4E. MuñozD
- 16G. GuiffreyD
- 3M. RecaldeD
- 30E. FernándezM
- 21F. AntoniniM
- 26F. LencioniM
- 17I. SabatiniF
- 9A. MódicaF
- 5N. BarbozaM
- 33B. AndradaF
- 7L. CingolaniF
- 22J. FrancoD
- 28T. O'ConnorM
- 31L. PetruchiG
- 11S. RodríguezF
- 10N. RomanoF
- 15U. SánchezM
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 28A. VigoD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 13A. OsellaD
- 3J. ElordiD
- 11G. RíosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. FlorentínM
- 8L. BuccaM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 9A. ArceF
- 36E. BonifacioD
- 27D. CregoM
- 23L. DíazF
- 10M. FernándezM
- 21Emmanuel GómezG
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 7V. RamisF
- 80M. RealiF
- 77L. SequeiraM
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Lanus1 November 2026
- L1-2Platense23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W3-1Banfield3 November 2026
- L0-1away to Argentinos Juniors27 October 2026
- D2-2Tigre17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Independiente Rivadavia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 26 April 2026Independiente Rivadavia 5–1 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 October 2022Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 3 July 2022Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 24 February 2022Independiente Rivadavia 2–0 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina
- 30 September 2018Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 11 August 2015Independiente Rivadavia 4–2 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
The full Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica140
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- J. Florentín91
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia Mendoza and Independiente Rivadavia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia Mendoza at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Germán Guiffrey 45' for Gimnasia Mendoza, Luis Ángel Díaz Cuesta 90+5' for Independiente Rivadavia. Sent off: Jose Ignacio Florentin (Independiente Rivadavia) 17', Luciano César Cingolani (Gimnasia Mendoza) 84'. On expected goals it finished 0.52–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia Mendoza these chances to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 100.0%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.