Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Aston Villa, 23% draw, 32% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 19I. MbayeM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 35João GomesM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 5T. MingsD
- 42J. WrightG
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 26L. BogardeM
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 15N. AkéD
- 3A. BrownD
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 70O. AydınM
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 13T. ÇetinG
- 14Y. DemirD
- 28B. ElmazM
- 34M. GünokG
- 91N. KantéM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 22L. MercanD
- 77O. MimoviÄD
- 45N. DorgelesF
Form going into Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
- D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
- 22 January 2026Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- M. Greenwood42
- Talisca40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa beat Fenerbahçe 6–0. The model had made a win for Aston Villa its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Johan Manzambi 12' for Aston Villa, Nicolas Jackson 31' for Aston Villa, Nicolas Jackson 39' for Aston Villa, Ross Barkley (penalty) 68' for Aston Villa, Ross Barkley 72' for Aston Villa, Tammy Abraham 90' for Aston Villa. On expected goals it finished 3.15–1.75.
How the call on Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 23% / 32%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Aston Villa win45%=
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Fenerbahçe win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Aston Villa's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Fenerbahçe's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.