14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

AS Roma vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Francois Letexier
Full time3 – 4

Final score: AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% AS Roma, 24% draw, 25% Real Madrid — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Roma at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma6%Draw91%Real Madrid3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Manu Konéout: Niccolò Pisilli
17'
⚽Marten de Roonassist: Matias Soule
20'
25'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Yan Diomande
🔁Paulo Dybalaout: Rodrigo Mora
45'
⚽Donyell Malenassist: Rodrigo Mora
51'
⚽Donyell Malenassist: Matias Soule
57'
•Donyell Malen
58'
59'
🔁Denzel Dumfriesout: Arda Güler
59'
🔁Viníciusout: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
Gianluca Mancini
60'
🔁Matias Souleout: Lorenzo Pellegrini
63'
🔁Gianluca Manciniout: Leonardo Balerdi
63'
Wesley Vinícius França Lima
69'
70'
🔁Aurelien Tchouameniout: Bernardo Silva
78'
🔁Marc Cucurellaout: Álvaro Fernández Carreras
78'
🔁Yan Diomandeout: Carlos Espí
🔁Mario Hermosoout: Konstantinos Koulierakis
81'
83'
⚽Carlos Espí
83'
•Carlos Espí
85'
⚽Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousaassist: Arda Güler
Lorenzo Pellegrini
89'
90'
⚽Antonio Rüdigerassist: Arda Güler
90+5'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras

Match stats — AS Roma vs Real Madrid

54%Possession46%
14Shots16
7On target8
5Corners9
1.49xG1.49

Goals against chances

AS Roma3 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Madrid4 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 95P. GolliniG
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 43WesleyM
  • 15M. de RoonM
  • 17M. KonéM
  • 20N. MolinaM
  • 18M. SouléM
  • 21P. DybalaM
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 77E. LulliD
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 7L. PellegriniM
  • 61N. PisilliM
  • 2D. RenschD
  • 32D. VásquezG
  • 26L. BalerdiD
  • 9S. CastroF
  • 70G. De MarziG
Coach: G. Gasperini
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 22A. RüdigerD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 14A. TchouaméniM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinícius JúniorM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 21Brahim DíazM
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 26Sergio MestreG
Coach: José Mourinho

Form going into AS Roma vs Real Madrid

AS Roma

UEFA Champions League

  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026

Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-1Inter8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20AS Roma4112108+24
2Real Madrid4400137+612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Real Madrid

  • 27 November 2018AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
  • 19 September 2018Real Madrid 3–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
  • 8 August 2018Real Madrid 2–1 AS RomaInternational Champions Cup
  • 8 March 2016Real Madrid 2–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
  • 17 February 2016AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League

The full AS Roma vs Real Madrid record →

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Real Madrid

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen42

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid won 4–3 at AS Roma. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 51% and given a win for Real Madrid 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marten de Roon 20' for AS Roma, Kylian Mbappé 25' for Real Madrid, Donyell Malen 51' for AS Roma, Donyell Malen 57' for AS Roma, Carlos Espí 83' for Real Madrid, Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 85' for Real Madrid, Antonio Rüdiger 90' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.49.

How the call on AS Roma v Real Madrid has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. AS Roma win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Real Madrid win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.