24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Aspmyra Stadion
Referee: Tore Hansen
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Bodo/Glimt, 16% draw, 11% Valerenga — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bodo/Glimt at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodo/Glimt0%Draw9%Valerenga91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Isak Dybvik Maattaout: Fredrik Bjorkan
45'
49'
Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
Ola Brynhildsen
53'
58'
🔁Ghayas Zahidout: Magnus Westergaard
65'
⚽Lucas Janus Ravn-Harenassist: Mathias Grundetjern
65'
🔁Fidel Brice Ambinaout: Odin Thiago Holm
🔁Ola Brynhildsenout: Andreas Helmersen
65'
🔁Sondre Auklendout: Ulrik Saltnes
65'
🔁Ole Didrik Blombergout: Joel Mvuka
73'
78'
🔁Lucas Janus Ravn-Harenout: Ivan Nasberg
78'
🔁Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeterout: Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembe
82'
Odin Thiago Holm
89'
Carl Lange
🔁Fredrik Sjovoldout: Jostein Gundersen
90'
90+5'
Oscar Hedvall

Match stats — Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga

69%Possession31%
26Shots13
8On target6
10Corners3
2.6xG1.41

Goals against chances

Bodo/Glimt0 from 2.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Valerenga1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt 4-4-2
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjøvoldD
  • 4O. BjørtuftD
  • 5H. AleesamiD
  • 25I. MäättäD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 10J. HaugeM
  • 11O. Didrik BlombergF
  • 17O. BrynhildsenF
Substitutes
  • 43M. L. AndersenG
  • 15F. BjørkanD
  • 6J. GundersenD
  • 21A. HelmersenF
  • 16J. KitolanoM
  • 22J. MvukaM
  • 2V. NielsenD
  • 14U. SaltnesM
  • 28Assan SanyangM
Coach: K. Knutsen
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 17M. GrundetjernD
  • 4A. Kiil OlsenD
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 26D. GjengaarD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 11G. ZahidM
  • 29F. AmbinaM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenF
  • 90O. SaeterF
Substitutes
  • 13S. LønningG
  • 37I. NäsbergD
  • 7H. NielsenF
  • 9G. RajkovicF
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 15O. HolmM
  • 39Gabriel Oddvar OpsahlM
Coach: J. Moesgaard

Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga

Bodo/Glimt

Eliteserien

  • W2-0away to Ham-Kam17 October 2026
  • W3-1Kristiansund BK10 October 2026

Valerenga

Eliteserien

  • W3-1Brann18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bodo/Glimt2620246323+4062
8Valerenga2695124347-432

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga

  • 8 August 2026Valerenga 1–2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 1 November 2025Valerenga 3–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 26 July 2025Bodo/Glimt 7–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 28 September 2023Valerenga 2–4 Bodo/GlimtNM Cupen
  • 24 September 2023Bodo/Glimt 4–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 4 June 2023Valerenga 1–3 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien

Leading scorers: Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga

Bodo/Glimt

GoalsAssists

  • A. Helmersen132

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Valerenga won 1–0 at Bodo/Glimt. The model had leaned towards a win for Bodo/Glimt at 73% and given a win for Valerenga 11%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 9 matches like this one. The goal: Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 65' for Valerenga. On expected goals it finished 2.60–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bodo/Glimt a 55.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 59.3% after a win, 46.1% after a draw, 37.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.0%, 18.7 points lower than before the match.

For Valerenga the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.8% going in: 3.5% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.5%, 12.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bodo/Glimt v Valerenga has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 75% / 15% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 73% / 16% / 11%: the biggest move is Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Bodo/Glimt win73%▼ −2
  2. Draw16%▲ +1
  3. Valerenga win11%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.